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Thread: Aaron Donald

  1. -11
    Awsi Dooger's Avatar
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    He's my favorite player in the draft, along with Kyle Van Noy. Favorite in terms of liking the way they play. I'm not claiming they'll be the two best guys out of this crop.

    A few months ago when I started following the process more closely, Donald and Van Noy were strangely low in the ratings. Van Noy has remained there, probably because there was no way he could duplicate 2012 in terms of percentage of big plays among his total tackles. It was ridiculous. He naturally returned to a more normal level and somehow that's being held against him. It never ceases to amaze me that guys who have proven they can make a major impact are downgraded if they flatten out late in their career, like Van Noy and Marquise Lee, yet stiffs who are mostly projections are happily adjusted toward the top.

    Donald reminds me of Tavon Austin last year in that somehow I was seeing second round projections on him in January. Didn't make a fleck of sense, given the rare talent and playmaking ability. Austin jumped to a more logical level and it looks like Donald will follow the same route. I don't think he'll get within 4-5 picks of our choice.

    j-off-her-doll and others described it perfectly earlier in the thread. Earl Mitchell and others on our defensive line roster should mean nothing toward a decision on Aaron Donald, if he's there, just like Tannehill's presence should mean nothing if Bridgewater somehow slipped to us. We don't have strengths. You've got to hammer that into your skull. Nothing on this team is elite. Even the punter hits too many line drives. Last year the opposition allowed him to get away with it via only one deep man allowing the ball to drop and scamper. Since I joined this site in 2005 an ongoing amazement is lists of our players held up as special, and no need to touch that area. Meanwhile, on any other team we wouldn't be scared of that group or even be able to name them. Draft a great player. It won't hurt. If we end up with a right tackle at #19 I'll be ill. What are the odds the best player available happens to be a right tackle? The Hickey era will immediately stamp itself as not appreciably different than Spielman or Ireland.
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  2. -12
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    I disagree. The draft isn't about plugging holes. It's about finding the best talents for your system. Starks is on a 2-year deal (and old), Mitchell shouldn't prevent you from drafting anyone, Odrick is on the last year of his contract. Almost every position of every team is in flux like this on a yearly basis, and that's why you don't bypass better players for lesser player that fill immediate needs. If all else is equal, by all means, address the immediate need, but if Shazier is off the board (which he very well could be), and Donald is on the board, there's a very small chance that you're going to get a better player than Donald at 19.
    He isn't a can't miss top 5 prospect...he's a damn solid one but you don't draft into your top position of strength in the first round. It doesn't make your team better. Starks has played at a high level, Odrick has as well and they're both 3 techs. Find me a position on this roster that is deeper? You can't blindly go BPA or you end up with what we had with Jordan last year. If you get Donald on the field you're taking off Starks and Odrick. If you draft a LBer or a OL you're trading Wheeler or our not existent RT for an impressive prospect...there is a clear upgrade that makes your team better. I find with BPA within reason....but Donald would be even more of a luxury pick than Dion was last year...it would make zero sense. I'd prefer Shazier too and I'd be shocked if he wasn't there.

    Upgrade your best slot (maybe) with a marginally better prospect or upgrade a Wheeler/Clabo with a marginally lesser prospect? What makes the team better? It's not Donald.

    Sign: Daryn Colledge
    Draft: 1. LB Ryan Shazier 2. OL Joel Bitonio 3. WR Donte Moncrief 4. OL Brandon Thomas 5. OT Laurent Duvernay Tardif 6. RB Bo Oliver 7. TBD

    LT Albert LG Smith C Pouncey RG Colledge RT Bitonio
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  3. -13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    j-off-her-doll and others described it perfectly earlier in the thread. Earl Mitchell and others on our defensive line roster should mean nothing toward a decision on Aaron Donald, if he's there, just like Tannehill's presence should mean nothing if Bridgewater somehow slipped to us. We don't have strengths. You've got to hammer that into your skull. Nothing on this team is elite. Even the punter hits too many line drives. Last year the opposition allowed him to get away with it via only one deep man allowing the ball to drop and scamper. Since I joined this site in 2005 an ongoing amazement is lists of our players held up as special, and no need to touch that area. Meanwhile, on any other team we wouldn't be scared of that group or even be able to name them. Draft a great player. It won't hurt. If we end up with a right tackle at #19 I'll be ill. What are the odds the best player available happens to be a right tackle? The Hickey era will immediately stamp itself as not appreciably different than Spielman or Ireland.
    This is my point...you can't possibly justify drafting Bridgewater just because you want to blindly pick BPA. As I said look what we have in Jordan...a guy who's playing a position that 3 other guys are already holding down. You can look at how much more talented one guy is but then you have to look at the value you're losing by leaving more talented players on the bench. A minor upgrade at one position (Donald over Odrick) is not a better approach than a huge upgrade at another (Shazier over Wheeler, Martin over ?, etc).

    Do you like this defense better?
    Wake-Donald-Mitchell-Vernon
    Wheeler-Ellerbe-Misi

    or

    Wake-Odrick-Mitchell-Vernon
    Shazier-Ellerbe-Misi

    It's crazy that after Dion last year people seriously think that drafting players into positions of strength makes any sense. Pick from a pool of positions that can make an immediate impact (RB, TE, OL, LBer, FS, WR) and if the guy's are immediate upgrades take the highest guy on your board. Positional value is important, it can't just be cast aside. If a guy like Louis Nix was a Donald level prospect, then we could talk business because he'd be an immediate upgrade over Mitchell more than likely.
    Last edited by FearTheBeard; 03-30-2014 at 03:03 PM.
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  4. -14
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    If Dion Jordan played up to his billing as a #3 overall pass rusher, he would have been a great pick.

    The problem with Jordan is that he's a better LB than a pass rusher/DE, and he's not a good enough LB to justify his #3 overall selection.
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  5. -15
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    If Dion Jordan played up to his billing as a #3 overall pass rusher, he would have been a great pick.

    The problem with Jordan is that he's a better LB than a pass rusher/DE, and he's not a good enough LB to justify his #3 overall selection.
    I don't have a problem with the Jordan pick because you know what at the time we took him we didn't really know what we had in Vernon. It'd be like drafting a corner this year if we hadn't drafted Taylor and only had Davis. I would've understood because there wasn't an established guy across from Wake and to me an edge rush is extremely important in the NFL. I just don't see how Donald makes THIS team better. I get liking a prospect, cause I like him as probably a top 12 guy...but I think all good draft philosophies draw from a lot of things, and pure BPA is too simplistic an approach. I don't think there's any guarantee that Donald plays at a higher level than Starks over the final 2 years of his contract. Odrick was fantastic last year. I don't want to leave these guys on the bench because we have him rated slightly higher, we're taking value away from our better players. I make this same argument against guys like Marquise Lee, but even with how deep this draft is at WR I'd understand taking a guy like Evans because it's something different in a position group we're strong at. I really don't think there's a DT in this draft that will definitively give us an upgrade on Odrick/Starks at 3-tech.

    Shazier > Wheeler
    Evans > Hartline
    Ebron > Sims
    Martin > Garner?
    Su'a-Filo > Brenner
    Donald > Starks/Odrick

    The only key contributors on our team there are Hartline and the DT's. Even then we'd just push Hartline to the slot. The other guys are clear upgrades and Evans, Shazier, Ebron are all pretty similarly rated guys, I'd even have the OL in the same ballpark.
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    Donald won't make it anywhere near our first pick IMO.

    The way teams are building there defenses now, and how there drafting, is highly aimed at pressure up the middle. Donald goes top 10 IMO. Very hard to see him get out of there, it's not exactly a strong position this draft.
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  7. -17
    JamesBW43's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FearTheBeard View Post
    This is my point...you can't possibly justify drafting Bridgewater just because you want to blindly pick BPA. As I said look what we have in Jordan...a guy who's playing a position that 3 other guys are already holding down. You can look at how much more talented one guy is but then you have to look at the value you're losing by leaving more talented players on the bench. A minor upgrade at one position (Donald over Odrick) is not a better approach than a huge upgrade at another (Shazier over Wheeler, Martin over ?, etc).

    Do you like this defense better?
    Wake-Donald-Mitchell-Vernon
    Wheeler-Ellerbe-Misi

    or

    Wake-Odrick-Mitchell-Vernon
    Shazier-Ellerbe-Misi

    It's crazy that after Dion last year people seriously think that drafting players into positions of strength makes any sense. Pick from a pool of positions that can make an immediate impact (RB, TE, OL, LBer, FS, WR) and if the guy's are immediate upgrades take the highest guy on your board. Positional value is important, it can't just be cast aside. If a guy like Louis Nix was a Donald level prospect, then we could talk business because he'd be an immediate upgrade over Mitchell more than likely.
    While I agree you can't just blindly pick BPA, I think you are undervaluing depth/positional value and overvaluing our current players. When you substitute a player, you're not necessarily losing the entire value of that player because there is a degree of fatigue to consider. And I don't think we have too many players that are more valuable than a properly selected 1st round pick.

    I wouldn't take Donald if Shazier is available but I absolutely would take him over Martin.
    Not every human is a manipulative, opportunistic, letch... or at least that's what I'm told.
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  8. -18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesBW43 View Post
    While I agree you can't just blindly pick BPA, I think you are undervaluing depth/positional value and overvaluing our current players. When you substitute a player, you're not necessarily losing the entire value of that player because there is a degree of fatigue to consider. And I don't think we have too many players that are more valuable than a properly selected 1st round pick.

    I wouldn't take Donald if Shazier is available but I absolutely would take him over Martin.
    My point is not only do we have talent at 3 tech, we have depth. If we needed a DT we'd be looking at a 1 tech who has a different set of skills, which I mentioned that in the event Nix was a Donald level prospect I'd understand that. You have your 3 tech snaps accounted for already with Odrick and Starks...Mitchell has value there too and it's worth giving the AJ Francis' of the world a run. We have a lot more "value" at DT than other positions on the roster, it's arguably our best position group. I never said that it was an absolute lost, but I don't think people weigh the difference between sharing snaps between what would be three 3-techs (maybe 1100 snaps), so best case you give Donald maybe 400-500...or you could plug in a G/T/LB and plug them in for nearly every down losing no value from other guys as they haven't been helpful. You draft Donald and you lose value from Odrick and Starks or play them out of position. I think 3 tech and QB can be put in the same vault and be punted away from our first round pick.

    I just don't see how I'm undervaluing depth. I think people our undervaluing all the other units on the team if they think we can make a luxury pick like Donald.
    DT: Starks, Mitchell, Odrick, Francis, Shelby (inside on passing downs)...that is TONS of depth, that's more depth and top end talent than any other unit on the team.

    A smart team, if somehow Donald fell to us, would use him as a trade chip, move down and accumulate picks in a deep draft.
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    Beard makes good points, were pretty solid at DT, and besides, we have AJ Francis. The general forum told me he was an amazing prospect, must be true.

    IMO The top of this draft should be focused on making the run game better. We need a real run game desparetly.

    But I'd also be fine if we took one of these Tight Ends which is where I think the best value at 19 will be.
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    If Dion Jordan played up to his billing as a #3 overall pass rusher, he would have been a great pick.

    The problem with Jordan is that he's a better LB than a pass rusher/DE, and he's not a good enough LB to justify his #3 overall selection.
    I haven't seen anything to make me think that Jordan can't be one heck of an OLB. Tailor made for a 3/4 but still, that's his position imo. It'll probably be the most frustrating thing for me next year if he's force fed into DE when the college and pro tape shows that he's immensely mobile, plenty tall to cover the big and quick TE's of the NFL and he's one heck of a pass rusher with a burst. This guy's downfall at DE simply is that his 250-260 lbs are spread over a lithe 6-6 frame and he's not meant to get tangled up with athletic 300-320 lb OTs that he'll face in the NFL. What you saw in college from him was great mobility, coverage ability that actually had him out wide in certain defenses in coverage, one heck of a pass rush with a startling first step- and a tendency to get ridden out wide by OTs when he went up against good OT's, big time. Look at the 2012 USC tape for example.

    Just because players like Jason Taylor and Jack Youngblood could cut it as undersized DE's doesn't mean that Jordan can- the dude is just not meant to have his hand in the ground and nose to nose up against NFL OTs imo. Draft a Chris Smith or James Gayle for that, go with Wake and Vernon at DE, whatever. Taylor thrived when taken off the line, and even before that he was just better than Jordan at being an undersized DE, bottom line. Even if Jordan improves at DE, I'll be pissed because his best use is in space, and as a pass rusher, a tall wild card to give opposing offensive coordinators fits. If the coaches didn't want to use him properly they shouldn't have drafted him in the first place. If Jeff Ireland forced him on Philbin, Philphin better make damn sure that Kevin Coyle gets the most out of him. If we have another year of misusing Jordan as badly as last year, I'll be nauseous.
    Last edited by jim1; 03-31-2014 at 09:05 AM.
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