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Thread: Slimm's 2015 Wide Receivers (Seniors)

  1. -11
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Honestly I think I would have to put Kasen Williams of Washington at the top of the list here.

    He's got the full NFL package. He can finish like Davante Parker but he's stronger, has quicker feet, more explosive, and he's a vicious run blocker.
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  2. -12
    TedSlimmJr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckparrothead View Post
    Honestly I think I would have to put Kasen Williams of Washington at the top of the list here.

    He's got the full NFL package. He can finish like Davante Parker but he's stronger, has quicker feet, more explosive, and he's a vicious run blocker.


    I wouldn't. Broken leg and Lisfranc aside, he's a little too similar to Chris Harper when he came out of Kansas St. Devante Parker is more similar to Aaron Dobson, who was a better prospect in my opinion. We're typically going to be on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to certain positions. Wide receiver is usually one of 'em.
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  3. -13
    j-off-her-doll's Avatar
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    I'd be interested in getting multiple opinions on this, but I'll direct the question to you Slimm:

    When analyzing players, where is the breaking point where players with special talent but also with inadequacies rate higher than players who are solid across the board? I ask this with two players in mind - one from this list, one from the 2013 draft. Ty Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson. As the setup implies, I don't view Montgomery as a rare talent in the class of Patterson. I do, though, view his combination of size and explosiveness (especially with the ball in his hands). I ask this, remembering that Patterson was your #1 WR of the 2013 draft. I know CK was very high on him too. I also had him as the #1 WR.

    So whether on paper or in your head (whether conscious or instinctual), do you have a model where you adjust your expectations of a player with special traits because of weaknesses, and if so, where does the rubber meet the road?

    It's early in the process for me, but I have Montgomery rated closer to the top, because I think his special traits give him a better chance to succeed at the next level than the more-rounded traits of some of the players you're currently ranking ahead of him. Of course, I could be overrated his special traits. Always the possibility of that.
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  4. -14
    TedSlimmJr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by j-off-her-doll View Post
    I'd be interested in getting multiple opinions on this, but I'll direct the question to you Slimm:

    When analyzing players, where is the breaking point where players with special talent but also with inadequacies rate higher than players who are solid across the board? I ask this with two players in mind - one from this list, one from the 2013 draft. Ty Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson. As the setup implies, I don't view Montgomery as a rare talent in the class of Patterson. I do, though, view his combination of size and explosiveness (especially with the ball in his hands). I ask this, remembering that Patterson was your #1 WR of the 2013 draft. I know CK was very high on him too. I also had him as the #1 WR.

    So whether on paper or in your head (whether conscious or instinctual), do you have a model where you adjust your expectations of a player with special traits because of weaknesses, and if so, where does the rubber meet the road?

    It's early in the process for me, but I have Montgomery rated closer to the top, because I think his special traits give him a better chance to succeed at the next level than the more-rounded traits of some of the players you're currently ranking ahead of him. Of course, I could be overrated his special traits. Always the possibility of that.

    For me there's a clear distinction between a special talent and a special skillset. They're two different things.

    A talent is innate or God given, however you choose to view it. A skillset is honed and developed. I always referred to Cordarrelle Patterson as a special talent. Anytime a player has a special talent, it's usually blatently obvious to even an untrained eye. This player stands out. I don't necessarily mean he stands out as one of the best players in the stadium on that particular day. This player stands out among all players that you've ever watched.

    You'll know it immediately... he'll trigger that instinct within you that tells you that he's doing things athletically that you don't see often when you watch a lot of football. In football, it's typically fairly simple... an explosive quality and/or insane change of direction. On the other hand, feats of strength or concentration can often be deceiving. For a receiver, talent is what he does with the ball in his hands. Skillset is what he does prior to that. You can take these to the bank. Calvin Johnson was a special talent. Julio Jones was a special talent.

    I'm not really sure how to answer your question regarding a breaking point between special talent with inadequacies and players that are solid across the board. The best way I can answer that is this.. all players have inadequacies somewhere. But not all have special talent. Which is why a special talent should rate higher. A solid player without special talent can outproduce a special talent because of what I mentioned before...a special skillset. Although that still doesn't make him a special talent. A.J. Green had a better skillset than Julio, but Julio was a more special talent physically. Wes Welker has a special skillset, but nowhere near a special talent.

    Another example, Sammy Watkins was the only special talent that I saw at the WR position this year. But I saw many with special skillsets. Marqise Lee has a special skillset... smoothness and route running. But again, he's not a special talent.

    I don't know that I would consider Ty Montgomery a special talent. Although I would agree that he has special traits for a receiver that size, which puts him in a category that is in the top percentile for an NFL wide receiver prospect. But he's not a 1% ("1 percenter"). He's good enough for top 10 on my board of Senior wide receivers. But I view my top prospect on this list (Parker) as a 2nd rounder in the mold of an Aaron Dobson. The underclassman are where I currently believe the special talent lies.

    I hope I answered your question somewhat. If not let me know.
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  5. -15
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Jordan Taylor is another senior wide receiver to watch out for next year. Caught my attention in 2012 trying to sift through tape on Vance McDonald, Luke Wilson and Sam McGuffie. Really amazing some of the hidden talent a little program like Rice had at the skill positions on that 2012 team.

    Taylor is more than just an inordinately tall (between 6'4" and 6'5") receiver with good hands. He has enough speed, I'd say he's in the 4.5's based on what I've seen. He performs legitimately athletic feats in addition to having some pretty damn good hands. That would probably be what separates him from someone like for example a Derek Moye who is still kicking around the NFL. Moye was inordinately sized, could run for that size, could catch the football, but I'm not sure I ever saw legitimately impressive athletic feats or catches. I saw good routes out of him and a nice never-quit attitude, which is why Moye is probably still kicking around the league.

    But with Jordan you also have legitimately impressive athletic feats, and it all makes for a nice combination.

    Here's his game against Texas A&M. I thought Odell Beckham looked pretty uninteresting against this same TAMU defense. And this wasn't a one-off for Taylor. As I said he was standing out even when you're trying to look at guys like Vance McDonald and Sam McGuffie in 2012.



    And here's another nice example of the kinds of plays from 2012 that drew me to him (fast-forward to 1:14 if it doesn't take you there automatically):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN6IG..._embedded#t=74

    Really an incredible finish on a play where he was being blatantly interfered with. Plays like that always catch my eye. If you can deal with flagged pass interference and still finish the catch, that translates well to the increased physicality of the NFL game.

    Some more work from Jordan Taylor in 2013 just for reference:
    (0:18:57) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z7lw...ailpage#t=1137
    (1:28:18) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z7lw...ailpage#t=5298
    (1:29:13) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z7lw...ailpage#t=5353
    (2:21:34) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z7lw...ailpage#t=8494
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  6. -16
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    I liked Chris Harper coming out as a mid round kind of guy. Just opening up the spreadsheet where I had my board from back then, I had him as a Day 3 target. I had the likes of Stedman Bailey, Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton, Justin Hunter and Marquise Goodwin as potential Day 2 targets at the position, and I also had Da'Rick Rogers and Marquess Wilson as Day 3 targets I'd have prioritized above Chris Harper. I liked Harper enough to prioritize and target him, which is more than I could say about a whole bunch of receivers from that year, including Aaron Dobson.

    It's a long way to the 2015 draft and therefore it's not the time for definitive statements. However, I don't see where the Kasen Williams = Chris Harper comparison comes from. I think if any player compares to Harper a little bit it's probably Antwan Goodley, whom I also like.

    I imagine Kasen Williams is going to grade out higher than Chris Harper because he's athletically more explosive. That was probably Harper's biggest issue. Williams also finishes catches better than Harper.

    I think the thing Kasen and Harper share is being a little bit at the mercy of their offense and quarterbacks. The Huskies ran the football on an amazing 60% of downs last year. Luckily their quarterbacks completed about 65 percent of their passes, but not so lucky are the injury issues Slimm mentioned with Kasen, who only played in 7 games before taking a bow in his 8th.

    I'm kind of impressed with the skill position of Washington. Kevin Smith and Jaydon Mickens are impressive, and of course they had Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Through the 7 games Kasen played fully healthy, Smith was actually beating Kasen with 459 yards and 3 TDs to Kasen's 400 yards and 1 TD. And Mickens wasn't far behind at 362 yards and 2 TDs. They really spread the football around.

    But you talk about guys with incredible ability, I think Kasen Williams stands out that way. Watch his game against Stanford. He's #2.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFafsSetyM

    You evaluate the basic skill set and he works the perimeter like Brian Hartline, except he runs really well after the catch, finishes contested catches and shows innate physicality and strength that Hartline would never show in a million years.

    Heck of a play right here (11:04):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFaf...tailpage#t=664

    And here (11:40):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgFaf...tailpage#t=700

    Both of those at the most critical time of the game, too.
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  7. -17
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    I love the way you two can discuss or debate an issue without just throwing out statements like "he sucks" and how you at least have some info to support why you like or dislike a player.
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  8. -18
    ckparrothead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregorygrant83 View Post
    I love the way you two can discuss or debate an issue without just throwing out statements like "he sucks" and how you at least have some info to support why you like or dislike a player.
    Thanks. If there's one thing I've tried to avoid for many years it's the "He's garbage, trust me I'm awesome at football" approach to posting.

    I think there may literally not be a person outside the NFL whose opinions on draft prospects I respect more than Slimm's, so I try and toe a fine line when it comes to disagreement versus disrespect.
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  9. -19
    j-off-her-doll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TedSlimmJr View Post
    For me there's a clear distinction between a special talent and a special skillset. They're two different things.

    A talent is innate or God given, however you choose to view it. A skillset is honed and developed. I always referred to Cordarrelle Patterson as a special talent. Anytime a player has a special talent, it's usually blatently obvious to even an untrained eye. This player stands out. I don't necessarily mean he stands out as one of the best players in the stadium on that particular day. This player stands out among all players that you've ever watched.

    You'll know it immediately... he'll trigger that instinct within you that tells you that he's doing things athletically that you don't see often when you watch a lot of football. In football, it's typically fairly simple... an explosive quality and/or insane change of direction. On the other hand, feats of strength or concentration can often be deceiving. For a receiver, talent is what he does with the ball in his hands. Skillset is what he does prior to that. You can take these to the bank. Calvin Johnson was a special talent. Julio Jones was a special talent.

    I'm not really sure how to answer your question regarding a breaking point between special talent with inadequacies and players that are solid across the board. The best way I can answer that is this.. all players have inadequacies somewhere. But not all have special talent. Which is why a special talent should rate higher. A solid player without special talent can outproduce a special talent because of what I mentioned before...a special skillset. Although that still doesn't make him a special talent. A.J. Green had a better skillset than Julio, but Julio was a more special talent physically. Wes Welker has a special skillset, but nowhere near a special talent.

    Another example, Sammy Watkins was the only special talent that I saw at the WR position this year. But I saw many with special skillsets. Marqise Lee has a special skillset... smoothness and route running. But again, he's not a special talent.

    I don't know that I would consider Ty Montgomery a special talent. Although I would agree that he has special traits for a receiver that size, which puts him in a category that is in the top percentile for an NFL wide receiver prospect. But he's not a 1% ("1 percenter"). He's good enough for top 10 on my board of Senior wide receivers. But I view my top prospect on this list (Parker) as a 2nd rounder in the mold of an Aaron Dobson. The underclassman are where I currently believe the special talent lies.

    I hope I answered your question somewhat. If not let me know.
    Beautifully explained, Slimm. Thank you.
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  10. -20
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    kasen williams is a better prospect than chris harper...more explosive more burst murderous downfield blocker...just more quick twitch and dynamic...i don't know how the injuries will play out draft wise or how much they will effect how his game looks this year but williams game transfers much better to the pros...i was really looking forward to seeing williams play in 2013 after what i saw from him prior...

    different level prospect than harper tools wise...

    if parker has burst out of his cuts and comes out of them well that will separate him from dobson in some regards...dobsons just so meh out of his cuts...2 years ago parker looked more like a red zone mismatch than complete wr to me but i saw some growth in 2013...most of my time this last season was spent enjoying bridgewaters spot on presnap reads and decision making with the football...parkers more of a mismatch in the red zone than dobson too...but parts of parkers game are still raw

    i don't see special talent in ty montgomery...
    Last edited by hooshoops; 06-11-2014 at 01:47 PM.
    hoops scoops 2012 season ..."in 2014 ryan tannehill etches his name in stone amongst the games elite qbs"..."ryan tannehill and andrew luck will carry the afc for the next decade plus the way peyton manning and tom brady have this last decade plus"
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