I think James would likely still be around after #19 but before we pick again at #50.....so if the top guys are off the board at #19, maybe try to trade down and get James a little later and another quality guy before we pick again at #50. I still think there is a decent possibility that Lewan or Zack Martin drops down to us.
I agree that sample size is a limiting factor in this. That's why this should be taken with a grain of salt. Not an "end all be all" kind of thing. Rather, a way to look at things. How can you look at recent trends that have a small sample size? Not a rhetorical question. I believe things like recent trends should be something to look at and try and draw conclusions from. At most, it would be a very small piece of the pie. For example the trend of Right Tackles. I think it's safe to say that the position is trending, and good ones are going higher now than, say in 2004.
I'm not a statistics or analytics guy trying to apply football knowledge I barely understand. I'm a football guy trying to apply statistics or analytics I barely understand.
I'm not trying to come up with a money ball scenario or formula. Just look at trends and the way successful teams are doing things, and what conclusions can be drawn from it. But I would rely heavily on my football knowledge when doing this. Not some "holy grail formula"
Anything shouright/gravity has posted is rubbish
However, stats like the correlation beween turnover differential and winning is a valid one.
I've found the deeper you dive into formulas, the farther away you get from football, and the less weight it will hold with football people.
Simple stats like 3rd down % redzone % and turnovers and how they relate to winning are good places to start. A lot easier to measure.