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Thread: Advanced Stats VS. Eye Ball Test

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    rev kev's Avatar
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    Advanced Stats VS. Eye Ball Test

    Brian Burke is of course former GM of Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks and is currently the President of Calgary Flames has said on more than one occasion...


    “Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunk,”
    .

    “Useful for support, but not for illumination.”

    Actually, he said it twice. Once in 2012 and again at the 2013 version of the event:


    I personally don't think it matters what the sport -> a person also has to visually look at the competition the players you are scouting are facing. I want to see how much effort the other team has put into stopping "said" player being scouted


    I also heard Burke say on local sports radio, if there were an Advanced Stat Resource that worked he would buy it so he could use it exclusively against other GMs


    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/puck-d...130255951.html
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    I think advanced stats are the future of evaluation...and probably already play a huge role...its just not public knowledge. Baseball is slowly accepting these things in the media, things like WAR, WRC+, etc etc.

    Some stats are just archaic. For example, as a pass rusher, your efficiency at getting pressures, hits, and sacks is critical. Yet what do people look at? Sacks. Pass rushers can dictate games without sacks...thats just one example.
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    It seems like that analogy should be clever but I can't make any sense of it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by roy_miami View Post
    It seems like that analogy should be clever but I can't make any sense of it.
    It's typical Brian Burke stuff. He makes funny, crass statements that are entertaining and quotable, but his performance in his job (GM) is pretty underwhelming...
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    Quote Originally Posted by GasPed View Post
    It's typical Brian Burke stuff. He makes funny, crass statements that are entertaining and quotable, but his performance in his job (GM) is pretty underwhelming...

    His trading is pretty good -> he won more than he lost his draft history is heavily scrutinized

    He puts very little into advanced stats is the point of the quote -> he prefers the eyeball test
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    Quote Originally Posted by rev kev View Post
    [COLOR="#0000FF"]Brian Burke is of course former GM of Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks and is currently the President of Calgary Flames has said on more than one occasion...


    “Statistics are like a lamp post to a drunk,”
    .

    “Useful for support, but not for illumination.”
    Don't you think though, rev, that hockey is a bit different than say baseball or football that way? I.e. Because of the relatively free-flowing, unstructured nature of hockey, where individual player roles/assignments are not clearly defined, it's very difficult to assign useful performance metrics and evaluate players against them? For instance, in football I can evaluate an OT's pass pro ability by measuring things like total pressures allowed, etc. because the OT's role in pass pro is very clear and the associated metric is as well. However, in hockey, the role of say a d-man as an individual is very fluid and situation dependent, almost on a second-by-second basis. As a result it's very difficult to find a good metric for his performance. Even hockey's so-called "advanced stats" (e.g. Corsi) are very dependent on team and situational play rather than the individual. I guess what I'm saying is that I largely agree with Burke when it comes to hockey, but less so when it comes to football or baseball...
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    Quote Originally Posted by rev kev View Post
    His trading is pretty good -> he won more than he lost his draft history is heavily scrutinized

    He puts very little into advanced stats is the point of the quote -> he prefers the eyeball test
    I agree about his trade history, although the Kessel trade takes the shine off a lot of his successes. Also, his drafting (at least with my Canucks) was pretty bad. He picked 5 good players (like the sisters, Kesler, etc>) and 100 total busts. But maybe his new protege (Treliving) will be better?
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Gift received at 02-24-2014, 02:26 PM from hooshoopsTannehill 17Tannehill 17
    Interesting topic. Many fans believe they know best because they watch games, and go with what their eyeballs tell them. This is for most, not all, watching a game with food, drink, friends, and emotion. Yet, their eyeballs tell them everything.

    When Philbin is asked about how certain players have played in post game, he always says he has to watch the tape but, fans know better and have no need to do this.

    Let's take PFF for an example. Many believe they know nothing and are a waste at what they do. However, they take 10 hours to "eyeball" our team to grade each player on each play. No matter, fans watched the game, and, in some warped sense of reality, believe they know better. Amazing.
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    The stats are interesting but it sucks when people say we should sign this player because he's great at pass protecting but they are basing that opinion 100% off of pff stats. If you are posting an opinion solely based off stats you should say so.
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    Quote Originally Posted by roy_miami View Post
    The stats are interesting but it sucks when people say we should sign this player because he's great at pass protecting but they are basing that opinion 100% off of pff stats. If you are posting an opinion solely based off stats you should say so.
    I tend to disagree with this. PFF is certainly not the be all end all..but they base their "stats" off of film review. As Southbeach pointed out...they spend hours reviewing each individual player and grade each play. Just as the teams do. We watch the games...and yes we can garner information from that...but its impossible to watch every player on every snap. Either way its based on game film. Some people might trust their own eyes more..and more credit to them. But I certainly dont have time to isolate every player on each snap.
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