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Thread: Advanced Stats VS. Eye Ball Test

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Gift received at 02-24-2014, 02:26 PM from hooshoopsTannehill 17Tannehill 17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zounds View Post
    Let me ask you this: if you were a GM tasked with signing a RG, would you open up PFF and sign a RG based off of those rankings? or would you want to watch an end zone view tape of all of his snaps?
    Obviously, a GM with a full time staff will want to take their own look. Unfortunately, fans do not have that option or, access to what they see. However, you do have agents negotiating multimillion dollar contracts for NFL players, who do use PFF in their negotiations. There are a number of testimonials confirming this.
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    This will become more and more prevalent. Lots of angles and versions. On one draft forum I visit regularly, there are some formulas incorporating combine numbers to predict how successful a player will be. Looks like Barr and Mack fare well this year:

    http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...542878&start=0
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  3. -23
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    Quote Originally Posted by GasPed View Post
    Don't you think though, rev, that hockey is a bit different than say baseball or football that way? I.e. Because of the relatively free-flowing, unstructured nature of hockey, where individual player roles/assignments are not clearly defined, it's very difficult to assign useful performance metrics and evaluate players against them? For instance, in football I can evaluate an OT's pass pro ability by measuring things like total pressures allowed, etc. because the OT's role in pass pro is very clear and the associated metric is as well. However, in hockey, the role of say a d-man as an individual is very fluid and situation dependent, almost on a second-by-second basis. As a result it's very difficult to find a good metric for his performance. Even hockey's so-called "advanced stats" (e.g. Corsi) are very dependent on team and situational play rather than the individual. I guess what I'm saying is that I largely agree with Burke when it comes to hockey, but less so when it comes to football or baseball...
    I think he is stressing the eyes -> I agree with your point about the fluididty of the skaters
    Pastor stands up in Church from the pulpit and asks the congregation if they know what the resurrection is about? Small child in a pew puts his hands up and would like to answer, pastor asks the child to answer, Boy says "If the resurrection persists over 4 hours you have to call a doctor"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southbeach 2 View Post
    Obviously, a GM with a full time staff will want to take their own look. Unfortunately, fans do not have that option or, access to what they see. However, you do have agents negotiating multimillion dollar contracts for NFL players, who do use PFF in their negotiations. There are a number of testimonials confirming this.
    So you use PFF out of the convenience it provides, rather than their diligence. I don't really care what agents use, they would cite Armando if it could get them leverage, but they way some people tout the PFF grades in this forum as an absolute is beyond me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GasPed View Post
    I agree about his trade history, although the Kessel trade takes the shine off a lot of his successes. Also, his drafting (at least with my Canucks) was pretty bad. He picked 5 good players (like the sisters, Kesler, etc>) and 100 total busts. But maybe his new protege (Treliving) will be better?
    He put Treviliving in place so that he can make the picks and Treliving can do the day to day grind - LOL
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    You need both, you can't only use advanced statistics, especially in football. Stats are just numbers, and the numbers -and this is the key step everyone who doesn't understand advanced stats omits- need to be interpreted before they give any meaningful information.

    On the other hand, advanced stats can help by providing objective evidence to balance out prejudice and preconceptions. For example, take one of those miserably bad OCs out there. Even the worst of those know more football than you do, so there's no way you could talk them conceptually out of their lousy gameplans, but if they paid attention to advanced statistics, they could see that they're not working.

    In other words, everyone always think they're right, so if you stick to your eyeballs, there's no more headway to make. Each to his own stubbornness. Stats can help locate our blind spots and polish them. It's win-win.

    It's wrong to feel threatened by stats. They're a tool, not HAL 9000. They're not here to take the place of the human brain in football, but to help it.
    Why so gloomy?
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    Jets made a mistake with Gholsten off what one or two series against Jake Long??? I guess even the eyes can deceive
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    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    This will become more and more prevalent. Lots of angles and versions. On one draft forum I visit regularly, there are some formulas incorporating combine numbers to predict how successful a player will be. Looks like Barr and Mack fare well this year:

    http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...542878&start=0
    The formula that guys uses incorporates a few redundant variables speed 10, speed 40, and average speed are all highly correlated and cannot be used in the same model. He could stand to read the chapter on multicollinearity in his statistics 101 textbook. Too many people are wowed by numbers and statistical models without even a simple F test to verify the hypothesis. His is bunk just by looking at it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by where's th'fish View Post
    You need both, you can't only use advanced statistics, especially in football. Stats are just numbers, and the numbers -and this is the key step everyone who doesn't understand advanced stats omits- need to be interpreted before they give any meaningful information.

    On the other hand, advanced stats can help by providing objective evidence to balance out prejudice and preconceptions. For example, take one of those miserably bad OCs out there. Even the worst of those know more football than you do, so there's no way you could talk them conceptually out of their lousy gameplans, but if they paid attention to advanced statistics, they could see that they're not working.

    In other words, everyone always think they're right, so if you stick to your eyeballs, there's no more headway to make. Each to his own stubbornness. Stats can help locate our blind spots and polish them. It's win-win.

    It's wrong to feel threatened by stats. They're a tool, not HAL 9000. They're not here to take the place of the human brain in football, but to help it.
    Yes I see I believe (no pun) but Burke is also saying he can't find the metric or he would buy it - to gain the competitive advantage

    in PFF talk they watch a player and grade from there (is Burke not saying) the advanced stat is to be created before the eyeball test does it not? do i make sense?
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Gift received at 02-24-2014, 02:26 PM from hooshoopsTannehill 17Tannehill 17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zounds View Post
    So you use PFF out of the convenience it provides, rather than their diligence. I don't really care what agents use, they would cite Armando if it could get them leverage, but they way some people tout the PFF grades in this forum as an absolute is beyond me.
    Both. In no way can I take over 10 hours a week to look at our players. For the year, that's 4 full 40 hour weeks. PFF grades are not absolute but, I know of no other source which can come close in a combo of eyeball and stats.

    IMO, it makes no sense to rip them when the vast majority doing so have never seen what they offer. What I post here is only a very small portion of what they provide.
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