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Thread: Advanced Stats VS. Eye Ball Test

  1. -41
    Sarnics13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southbeach 2 View Post
    Interesting topic. Many fans believe they know best because they watch games, and go with what their eyeballs tell them. This is for most, not all, watching a game with food, drink, friends, and emotion. Yet, their eyeballs tell them everything.

    When Philbin is asked about how certain players have played in post game, he always says he has to watch the tape but, fans know better and have no need to do this.

    Let's take PFF for an example. Many believe they know nothing and are a waste at what they do. However, they take 10 hours to "eyeball" our team to grade each player on each play. No matter, fans watched the game, and, in some warped sense of reality, believe they know better. Amazing.
    Yes but their stats are only based on outcome for a specific individual. In baseball that is so much easier to do because so little of what you do is dependent on another person. It is very much an individual effort. By contrast football is almost completely devoid of individual achievement. You can have a great batting average in baseball and very accurately can depict how good of a hitter you are. Nobody else has a stake in your success. In football you couldn't hand the ball to a RB and expect any positive results if he is there is only 1 Olineman, for example. A WR can do everything right, but if the ball is batted at the line, or underthrown by 10 yards he is penalized with a "miss" even though it had absolutely nothing to do with him.

    I know there most likely far more sophisticated parameters but the point is that in football, looking at stats only is a inadequate to determine to a degree of certainty if a player is good or not. Overall he just has too many other people to rely on to complete the task he is being judged on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarnics13 View Post
    Yes but their stats are only based on outcome for a specific individual. In baseball that is so much easier to do because so little of what you do is dependent on another person. It is very much an individual effort. By contrast football is almost completely devoid of individual achievement. You can have a great batting average in baseball and very accurately can depict how good of a hitter you are. Nobody else has a stake in your success. In football you couldn't hand the ball to a RB and expect any positive results if he is there is only 1 Olineman, for example. A WR can do everything right, but if the ball is batted at the line, or underthrown by 10 yards he is penalized with a "miss" even though it had absolutely nothing to do with him.

    I know there most likely far more sophisticated parameters but the point is that in football, looking at stats only is a inadequate to determine to a degree of certainty if a player is good or not. Overall he just has too many other people to rely on to complete the task he is being judged on.
    Then why is it that the players with the best stats, and ranked at the top with eyeball tests, are almost always the best players at their positions. I can go up and down the list, and there are few exceptions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zounds View Post
    Ive subscribed to PFF before.....been there done that. No idea where they get some of their grades from. Sometimes they get close, other times they are way off.

    But what PFF supplies isnt the "advanced stats" we are talking about. Giving a guy a -1,0,1, or 2 grade for each snap isn't what people are talking about with advanced statistical modeling.
    Z, if you believe that they are way off, all ya gotta do is pick a player you disagreed with and post your opinions. Then we compare. What can be more fair?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southbeach 2 View Post
    Then why is it that the players with the best stats, and ranked at the top with eyeball tests, are almost always the best players at their positions. I can go up and down the list, and there are few exceptions.
    I think you are confusing stats, like TD passes, with the advanced statistical modeling used to make predictions.

    Nobody is saying that we should stop counting TD passes, but when you incorporate the one variable of TD passes into a statistical model used to make a prediction, that's what the OP is talking about. What you are talking about is measuring productivity, what these new analytics in sports are trying to do is make a prediction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zounds View Post
    I think you are confusing stats, like TD passes, with the advanced statistical modeling used to make predictions.

    Nobody is saying that we should stop counting TD passes, but when you incorporate the one variable of TD passes into a statistical model used to make a prediction, that's what the OP is talking about. What you are talking about is measuring productivity, what these new analytics in sports are trying to do is make a prediction.
    Not at all. On a QB, I'm looking at all throws behind the line, 0-9 yds, 10-19 yds, over 20 yds. and left, right, and middle on all, along with who caught what and where. I'm looking at a QB being blitzed, and under pressure, performance in play action, and how he did depending on the time he had to throw, etc. Not TD passes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southbeach 2 View Post
    Not at all. On a QB, I'm looking at all throws behind the line, 0-9 yds, 10-19 yds, over 20 yds. and left, right, and middle on all, along with who caught what and where. I'm looking at a QB being blitzed, and under pressure, performance in play action, and how he did depending on the time he had to throw, etc. Not TD passes.
    Like I said, those are measurements, not statistical models to which the OP is referring to. Each one of the categories you mentioned would be an independent variable within a statistical model.
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    rev kev's Avatar
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    Zounds - Yes you have it - but this is Brian Burke take and it likely applies to other team sports
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southbeach 2 View Post
    Then why is it that the players with the best stats, and ranked at the top with eyeball tests, are almost always the best players at their positions. I can go up and down the list, and there are few exceptions.
    I also pay attention to stats, and I in no way think they are useless. I just have yet to see the equation that can truly determine the greatest likelihood of success of a particular player without including the supporting cast and other variables. I agree that they tell a story, I just don't think numbers on the page tell the WHOLE story. How many players have we seen perform admirably with a team, only to get traded and turn in to a beast.....and vice versa? Did they drink some magic potion or did all the other variables needed just fit in with the new team.....

    Our Oline sucked big time last year, and several peoples stats suffered drastically because of it. You may think so, but I for one do not believe Lamar Miller (for one example) is nearly as inadequate as his numbers state. He was severely set back due to the poor play of others.
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    Stats enhance arguments. But relying simply on stats that "PFF says..." annoys me. Lots of things stats don't measure.
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    Cam Wake 912013 Dolphins LogoMike Wallace 11
    I thought stat threads were gone when gravity/shouright got kicked to the curb?
    The above post is not subject to penalty under the TOS I declare the Hayden Fox defense. " It is impossible for the staff to know my context therefore I cannot be penalized"

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