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Thread: An Economist's perspective on the Draft: Always better to trade down, than up

  1. -11
    Travis34's Avatar
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    I mean in theory it works and is true. But at the same time you could pass up Earl Thomas for Misi/Odrick

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    insomnia411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Travis34 View Post
    I mean in theory it works and is true. But at the same time you could pass up Earl Thomas for Misi/Odrick
    And Dez Bryant hah.

    Trading down usually is the right play, but we have such a huge hole at RT that if we don't fill it we're screwed. I would trade up for Lewan.

    "I don't have pet peeves, I have psychotic ****ing hatred"
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    1972 Dolphins Logo2013 Dolphins LogoCam Wake 91
    The real value when trading during the draft lies in future picks IMO... Teams seem to put less value on their future(as in next years draft) picks for whatever reason and there is potential for robbery there if you re willing to be patient and really build for the future..
    Last edited by NBP81; 05-07-2014 at 05:44 PM.
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  4. -14
    Fin Thirteen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NBP81 View Post
    The real value when trading during the draft lies in future picks IMO... Teams seem to put less value on their future(as in next years draft) picks for whatever reason and there is potential for robbery there if your willing to be patient and really build for the future..
    This.
    Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. - S. Beckett
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    I think it depends in part on how many picks you have. If you've got more than your typical allotment, it may make sense to move up. There's not a whole lot of time to evaluate these guys before roster decisions have to be made.

    That being said, I really hope the Dolphins don't trade up this year, especially if it's to take a lineman. With all the drama surrounding the QBs, I think there's a great chance for someone to fall in our lap, or for the Dolphins to get a good deal trading down.
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  6. -16
    fakespike's Avatar
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    Exhibit A: Earl Thomas

    Exhibits B & C: Jared Odrick and Koa Misi
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  7. -17
    spiketex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fakespike View Post
    Exhibit A: Earl Thomas

    Exhibits B & C: Jared Odrick and Koa Misi
    We probably get more combined value out of Odrick and Misi than San Diego gets from Ryan Matthews. However, the fact that Ireland failed to properly evaluate the talent available to recognize Earl Thomas's value flags a bigger problem. It also flags that the Chargers identified the wrong player to sacrifice their 2nd round pick.
    After every draft, Ireland said that we nailed it, based on his board. However, for the occasional successful selections, there seems a lot of inaccurate evaluations. Hopefully, Dennis Hickey can correct these problems and make some progress in this area.
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    I think the ability for a GM to identify the "perfect fit" of a player, his coaches, his organization and his support network is probably more valuable than any measurable or on-field performance. I also think this talent is more rare than coaching a team to a Super Bowl win.

    I think this is what truly separates the greatest GMs from great GMs. When you make a pick that doesn't consume more resources from your organization than the other 52 guys on the team, your coaches have more time to do the job they are best equipped.

    I agree management abilities and player responsibilities exist within everyone in the organization and the player. But let's face it, many times a single player can destroy a team. Who brought him into the organization? There's the real problem.

    I'm not saying every factor of acquiring Player X should be predictable. It's impossible. But the GREATEST GMs have the ability to realize Player X is more deficient in certain areas that will create a strain on the organization than Player Y. For all of the talent Player X may have, his tenure with the organization may be less productive than Player Y. And these are the GMs that build teams that are constantly competing for championships and have winning traditions.

    On the field excellence is not about one guy. It starts at the top. Super Bowls, championships and real winning start with the hiring process. This is why most teams depend on talent and a few, very few have an organization that can win with just about anyone.

    For all that he didn't deliver, Jimmy did build a great organization. It was evident in the fact it took Wanny several years to destroy the team. That's a sign there was a solid core and resources at every level.

    Jimmy simply didn't have the desire to see his creation through to completion. So, in that regards, he wasn't great at what he did. And that too is part of it, dedication to a dream.

    When occurrences like "Bully Gate" happen, it's not a condemnation of one guy. It's an indication of failure at many levels.

    Hickey might be "the guy", but as of right now, Philbin has yet to prove anything to me. So it doesn't matter "how" you draft. If you don't know how to build a team, draft picks, draft value and player ability mean nothing.
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    Cam Wake 911972 Dolphins Logo
    Quote Originally Posted by spiketex View Post
    We probably get more combined value out of Odrick and Misi than San Diego gets from Ryan Matthews. However, the fact that Ireland failed to properly evaluate the talent available to recognize Earl Thomas's value flags a bigger problem. It also flags that the Chargers identified the wrong player to sacrifice their 2nd round pick.
    After every draft, Ireland said that we nailed it, based on his board. However, for the occasional successful selections, there seems a lot of inaccurate evaluations. Hopefully, Dennis Hickey can correct these problems and make some progress in this area.
    While Ireland did a bad job in drafting, do you honestly expect ANY GM to come out of a draft saying "We really screwed up, according to our board"?
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  10. -20
    spiketex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BahamaFinFan78 View Post
    While Ireland did a bad job in drafting, do you honestly expect ANY GM to come out of a draft saying "We really screwed up, according to our board"?
    Good point and I'm sure that he really meant it when he said - "nailed it", each year. However, it strikes me that there was such a big variance between the expectations and the reality 2 - 3 years later, we never got any explanations.
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