There is a lot of speculation about what Saban should do in the draft. Several of the ideas seem to ignore some key factors. I'm sure I'll miss some and that's part of the reason for this thread.
First - what we know:
So far, there are no real studs at the top of the draft that several teams (even the Dolphins) want at that slot. There is no consensus - despite the calls on this board that we MUST DRAFT PLAYER X! - Please!
We also know the Dolphins have several need or potential need areas - RB, OL, DT, OLB, WR, SS/FS, QB (I'll let you figure out the order - there's much disagreement there). Some of this will depend on who gets released before the draft and what free agents, IF ANY, we go after before the draft.
Second - Issues related to taking this pick or trading down:
1) There are difficulties with trading down this year because the talent level is not that different from the 8th or 10th pick. So, the demand is not there. And, if the Dolphins were to seek a trade to get out of #2, they certainly CANNOT expect all sorts of dreamy picks that many are speculating about. Please stop! :yell:
2) The one hope the Dolphins do have of trading down is if a team or teams has their eye on one or two top players at a position of need that are worthy of the #2 but are not expected to fall to them some 6-8 picks down. For example - If Williams & Edwards - the two WR's in the top 10 right now - really shine - they could rise to the top of the board. If a team at #8 or 10 really gets the "hots" for one of these and they are convinced neither will be there, they may be very willing to trade up. However, it is STILL unlikely that they will offer more than a 2nd round pick in combination.
3) All things being equal - the Dolphins would do well to trade down, even if they don't get "typical" value. Value is ultimately relative and changes year to year. Obviously we don't want to trade ourselves out of getting a quality player. Nor drop 10 spots to pick up a 5th rounder! But, if the Dolphins drop to #8, again as an example, there still should be some solid value players available there at positions they have need (take your pick!); and, if they get a 2nd round pick for that, it would be a good move, imo. Yes, it would not be typical value. But, this team needs many players and I think Saban can draft well enough to get great value out of the 2nd round pick.
4) Getting multiple draft picks for Surtain would be a boon. Several are saying that we have to get a #1 or it's not worth it. Ultimately, the market for Surtain will decide the matter and Saban will have to decide. I think a 2nd & 3rd or a 2nd this year and 2nd next would be decent - given the whole circumstances.
Third - The More Picks The Better Philosophy:
This is a key, in my estimation. New England has done a great job of accumulating draft picks over the years, despite it's winning ways. No matter how good the drafter is, they will pick busts. Having a few picks makes the pressure that much more to get the PERFECT selection. This is what Wannstedt did to himself by trading picks (Spielman has done it as well). It is, imo, a HUGE mistake. It makes the draft more difficult, more pressurized, and it is a recipe for failure.
Ideally, we want to accumulate picks. Some of the best players on the best teams are not #1 draft choices - but are found in the middle rounds. I also remember a number of years ago the Dolphins had 17 #1 draft picks on the team (I believe it was Shula's last year) - and most were duds.
So, I am all for getting more picks and doing whatever possible to accumulate them. At the same time, I'm willing to give Saban the benefit of the doubt on his drafts - until we see what happens 3-4 years down the road. We can all cry about player X who should have been drafted. But, most of those we complain about at the time, turn out to be wrong (except in a few instances).
Be Cool ...