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Thread: Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith

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    Best For The Long Haul? It Might Be Alex Smith

    First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

    Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

    If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

    However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

    In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".
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    no way...
    ************************************
    2010 Dolphins select NT Dan Williams 12th overall

    Eric Berry will be drafted by the Browns IMO ( he is not falling out of the top 10)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric-Gofins
    no way...
    His guess is as good as yours!!! :wink:
    Time To Ski


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghetti13
    First of all, I have watched alot of Alex Smith. He is very athletic and appears to possess great decision making skils. However, he needs to add some weight to improve his arm. He also needs to work on some of the finer parts of the quarterback position. The bottom line is that the aspects of his game in which he needs work are all correctable. He will need to hold a clip board for 1 to 2 years before he is ready to really make an impact, however, when he is ready we may have a real gem on our hands.

    Alex is 20 years old right now. He will turn 21 in May. That means that after two years of holding a clipboard, which is often the best way to develope a quarterback (McNair, McNabb, Pennington, T. Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck, etc, etc) he will be 23 years of age. As a comparison, at that same time Ronnie Brown will be a 26 year old tailback.

    If Saban wants an almost sure thing impact player who can make a difference right away, that player is Ronnie Brown.

    However, if he wants someone who may not play for a year or two but might be a staple for the next 13 years or so after that, the decision is simple.

    In the words of Nick Saban, Alex Smith may have the "best value to the organization".
    First of all, Alex Smith does not have a weak arm to begin with. His arm strength is an unknown because the system Urban Meyer ran never allowed him to showcase that arm. What I've seen on film though is that he does have good velocity on his throws, which is the best indicator of arm strength.

    Secondly, Alex Smith does need to gain weight, but I don't think gaining weight will increase arm strength. If it could, then we should have had Jay up to 250 lbs. Alex is 217 and probably needs to be at a healthy 225 to withstand the punishment of a 16 game schedule. However, there are posters on here who are clamoring for Adrian McPherson, who is the same height as Alex Smith yet 5 lbs lighter (212 lbs). So, I don't understand why some knock Alex for being thin yet want to promote McPherson.

    Thirdly, picking Alex Smith will depend on how much of a drop off Nick Saban feels there is from him to the QBs we could be targeting in the third round area. Quarterbacks like Adrian McPherson, David Greene, and perhaps Andrew Walter. If that drop off is greater than the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to players like Vernand Morency, Frank Gore, and Kay Jay Harris, then you may see Nick go for Alex Smith and then pick up one of those backs.

    However, if Nick feels the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to Vernand Morency is greater than the dropoff from Alex Smith to David Greene, then I believe you will see Nick go with Ronnie Brown and then grab David Greene.

    Credit to feelthepain
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    I think looking at the drop off between two players would not be a very bright way of making the decision. Saban will draft the best player for this organization. Other players will not dictate who they take. If Miami drafts with that frame of mind, like they did for the Wannstedt era, we will continue to draft poorly. Your premise, in my opinion, is incorrect.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KB21
    First of all, Alex Smith does not have a weak arm to begin with. His arm strength is an unknown because the system Urban Meyer ran never allowed him to showcase that arm. What I've seen on film though is that he does have good velocity on his throws, which is the best indicator of arm strength.

    Secondly, Alex Smith does need to gain weight, but I don't think gaining weight will increase arm strength. If it could, then we should have had Jay up to 250 lbs. Alex is 217 and probably needs to be at a healthy 225 to withstand the punishment of a 16 game schedule. However, there are posters on here who are clamoring for Adrian McPherson, who is the same height as Alex Smith yet 5 lbs lighter (212 lbs). So, I don't understand why some knock Alex for being thin yet want to promote McPherson.

    Thirdly, picking Alex Smith will depend on how much of a drop off Nick Saban feels there is from him to the QBs we could be targeting in the third round area. Quarterbacks like Adrian McPherson, David Greene, and perhaps Andrew Walter. If that drop off is greater than the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to players like Vernand Morency, Frank Gore, and Kay Jay Harris, then you may see Nick go for Alex Smith and then pick up one of those backs.

    However, if Nick feels the dropoff from Ronnie Brown to Vernand Morency is greater than the dropoff from Alex Smith to David Greene, then I believe you will see Nick go with Ronnie Brown and then grab David Greene.
    You put the nail on the head KB. Couldn't have said it any better.
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    You cannot draft a player because "well, if I draft Brown here, I can draft Greene in the 3rd". Its ******ed. Greene might not be there. Then what? Every time you have a pick you must consider offers to trade and if that is not available, you take the best player. Period. No consideration will be given by Nick Saban as to prognostications of who might be around in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and beyond.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghetti13
    You cannot draft a player because "well, if I draft Brown here, I can draft Greene in the 3rd". Its ******ed. Greene might not be there. Then what? Every time you have a pick you must consider offers to trade and if that is not available, you take the best player. Period. No consideration will be given by Nick Saban as to prognostications of who might be around in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and beyond.
    Dude, chill! I think you're oversimplifying things. It's all about value when it comes to the #2 pick. If you can get a good, all around runningback at the #2 and possibly a decent QB you can develop in the 3-5 rounds, you do it. If you can get a project QB who may take a few years to develop at #2 and then have to take the bottom of the barrel for RBs in the 3rd (Gore/bad knees, Harris/Older Rook, Houston/Injury history), you'd be foolish IMO.

    The way I look at it is in scenario 1, you have 1 question mark and one almost sure-thing (although nothing is a sure thing). In scenario 2 you have two question marks. Will the QB develop and contribute and when? And, will the RB (or whatever) be a contributor to the team at all?

    It's all about value and it's nothing close to the boneheaded thinking of Wanny.
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    What you are discribing is the same thing as drafting for need, and intern, hurting your team. Lets say you are considering two players. A RB and a QB. It is my opinion that you take the player who you have graded higher, regardless of what MIGHT be available later in the round. That means if Ronnie Brown will have more value to your organization, you take him. If Alex Smith will have more value to your organization, you take him. The draft is too unpredictable to pass on a better player because you think you will be able to land a good player at the better player's position later in the draft.

    That is the essence of reaching. That is the type of draft philosophy that keeps bad teams bad.
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    At the 2nd pick of the draft you can usally pick BPA and need in the same
    pick.
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