Welcome to FinHeaven Fans Forums! We're glad to have you here. Please feel free to browse the forum. We'd like to invite you to join our community; doing so will enable you to view additional forums and post with our other members.



VIP Members don't see these ads. Join VIP Now
Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: Statistical 2005 projects by team

  1. -1
    Pro Bowler

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Nov 2004
    Posts:
    1,818
    vCash:
    1000
    Thanks / No Thanks

    Statistical 2005 projects by team

    For those with the time and the mentallity Football Outsiders offers their projections on the 2005 season.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ram...p?p=2854&cat=3

    Worth a look as well

    http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth03_article02.html

    Explanation of Tables


    Division: How often this team won division after simulating season 1,500 times.
    Playoffs: How often this team made the playoffs after simulating season 1,500 times.
    Mean Wins: Average wins for team based on DVOA projections and schedule strength.
    Std Dev: This number represents how predictible the team is for 2005, according to the projection system. The lower the number, the more stable the projection. Jacksonville is the lowest team at 61. Arizona is the highest team at 115. (For math geeks, this is standard deviation of wins divided by mean wins, times 100. Arizona’s standard deviation was actually higher than its mean wins.)
    Adjusted Offense: Projected level of offense, separated from defense, special teams, schedule, and luck, along with rank among the 32 teams.
    Adjusted Defense: Same for defense.
    Adjusted Special Teams: Same for special teams.
    Total: Theoretically, point spread for this team if it played a perfectly average team on a neutral field, with rank among the 32 teams.
    Schedule: Average DVOA of all 16 opponents, without considering home field. Ranked from hardest schedule (1: San Diego, 7.8%) to the easiest schedule (32: Seattle, -5.7%).

    See chart on the site... it won't copy on here
    Quote Quote  

  2. -2
    HysterikiLL's Avatar
    FinHeaven Elite

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Dec 2004
    Posts:
    12,688
    vCash:
    1030
    Thanks / No Thanks
    They think NYJ will have such a good offense? Pfft.

    Is it 3am yet?
    Quote Quote  

  3. -3
    Pro Bowler

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Nov 2004
    Posts:
    1,818
    vCash:
    1000
    Thanks / No Thanks
    This is a very soild site for stat based references... they ran the simulation 1500 times based on stats from 2000 to 2004.... I was actually encouraged by the report.
    Quote Quote  

  4. -4
    billybojim's Avatar
    Waterlogged

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Sep 2005
    Posts:
    123
    vCash:
    1000
    Thanks / No Thanks
    who farted?
    Quote Quote  

  5. -5
    ErroneousFlint's Avatar
    Pro Bowler

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Sep 2004
    Posts:
    2,063
    vCash:
    1000
    Thanks / No Thanks
    Quote Originally Posted by thedayafter
    For those with the time and the mentallity Football Outsiders offers their projections on the 2005 season.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ram...p?p=2854&cat=3

    Worth a look as well

    http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth03_article02.html

    Explanation of Tables


    Division: How often this team won division after simulating season 1,500 times.
    Playoffs: How often this team made the playoffs after simulating season 1,500 times.
    Mean Wins: Average wins for team based on DVOA projections and schedule strength.
    Std Dev: This number represents how predictible the team is for 2005, according to the projection system. The lower the number, the more stable the projection. Jacksonville is the lowest team at 61. Arizona is the highest team at 115. (For math geeks, this is standard deviation of wins divided by mean wins, times 100. Arizona’s standard deviation was actually higher than its mean wins.)
    Adjusted Offense: Projected level of offense, separated from defense, special teams, schedule, and luck, along with rank among the 32 teams.
    Adjusted Defense: Same for defense.
    Adjusted Special Teams: Same for special teams.
    Total: Theoretically, point spread for this team if it played a perfectly average team on a neutral field, with rank among the 32 teams.
    Schedule: Average DVOA of all 16 opponents, without considering home field. Ranked from hardest schedule (1: San Diego, 7.8%) to the easiest schedule (32: Seattle, -5.7%).

    See chart on the site... it won't copy on here
    it's definitely interesting but i trust that you can go round and round with numbers in any given direction. i feel tempted to hold it to it's predictions if you can refer to them as such but i don't put too much stock in playing the numbers game which is probably why i'm a full time loser but get a rush from the risk one takes being one.
    WAR
    The Pleasure of The Mad,
    The Final Argument
    of
    Ungrown Men.
    - Bukowski
    Quote Quote  

  6. -6
    NorFlaFin's Avatar
    PowerHungryMo'fo

    Status:
    Offline
    WPA:
    Join date:
    Sep 2004
    Posts:
    3,843
    vCash:
    2900
    Thanks / No Thanks
    When a team totally changes coaching staffs(Phins, 49ers) how are the stats figured?
    Quote Quote  

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 31
    Last Post: 12-28-2012, 05:47 PM
  2. ESPN projects.....
    By NewPhinPhan in forum NFL Draft Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 03-19-2008, 05:54 PM
  3. Replies: 22
    Last Post: 10-02-2006, 03:27 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •