BPA- Are We There, And a Hypothetical

[phinsforlife]

-Have the Dolphins put themselves in a spot where they can go BPA with their first two picks?

I think give or take close enough, need might over-ride something if their board has a guy rated 91 at a higher position of need, and the BPA is a 93 at a lesser position of need, they might go with the 91. But I think they are at the point where if the higher position of need is an 85, and the BPA is 93, they would take the BPA. Net/net after putting themselves in a really bad spot before FA with the cap jam they were in, they have navigated reasonably smartly and I think with purpose so they don't have gaping holes they are forced to fill in the draft. It seems they kind of did have an actual strategy to plug the holes prior to the draft and put themselves in a spot to go BPA.

-Hypothetical question. Using these players only for illustrative purposes only, it could be player A versus B to take the names and positions out of it. If the Dolphins drafted Graham Barton, and he filled a need at guard (low positional value), and turned out to be a good and productive NFL player, but not elite, while skipping over a guy like Laiatu Latu, who turns out to be an elite edge rusher (high positional value), would Barton still turn out to be a good draft pick in retrospect?

I honestly go back and forth on this. Am curious what other people think? Where I am coming out now, before other thoughts, is Barton would still have been an OK pick. Simply, you can do a lot worse, and draft a bust. At least he was pretty good. You will never be perfect all of the time. If these kinds of mistakes are your worst mistakes, you will still be pretty good.

Thoughts on both issues?

PS this is a late edit moving this here, maybe should have included it up front in the original OP:

FWIW this blurb on ESPN (full article paywalled) is what prompted me to ask the questions in the OP. I didn't want to lead with the article because I thought it might influence the responses, so I tried to ask the questions a bit more generically. ESPN is stating the Dolphins will take Barton, because of need, but Latu is the better player. No idea if positional value is also part of their calculus (edge more valuable than guard), or if they just believe Latu is straight up better. My guess is probably both, but that is not clear from the ESPN text alone. In their article, for some of the other teams, the player that fills the need is the same player as the one that gets best value. Below the Dolphins blurb is the Seattle blurb, late pick, same guy for both categories. Sadly he probably will not be around for us:

21. Miami Dolphins​

Reid's pick that fills a big need: Graham Barton, C/OT, Duke

After losing two starters from the interior offensive line -- Robert Hunt and Connor Williams -- this offseason, Barton would slot in well; he's capable of playing all five positions up front.

Miller's pick that gets best value: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Latu is the cleanest pass-rusher in the draft with pro-ready hands and tools. He's No. 22 on my board, and while medicals will determine his final draft stock, he's a plug-and-play rusher.

16. Seattle Seahawks​

Reid's pick that fills a big need: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas are the clear starters at tackle, but the interior is an issue, especially after Damien Lewis signed in Carolina. Despite being a college left tackle, Fautanu could play inside; he's an agile and aggressive blocker with easy movement skills.

Miller's pick that gets best value: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

Needs and value are in agreement here. Fautanu would be a great pick in Seattle. He'd also be a really good scheme fit, and I'd plug him in at guard from Day 1.

Debating biggest team need vs. best value in Round 1: We made two draft picks at all 32 slots ​

Fill a need? Best player available? We played out both strategies for all 32 first-round slots in the 2024 NFL draft.

 

[JamesWsenior]

O line. Don't think I need to explain why.

 

[Mach2]

-Have the Dolphins put themselves in a spot where they can go BPA with their first two picks?

I think give or take close enough, need might over-ride something if their board has a guy rated 91 at a higher position of need, and the BPA is a 93 at a lesser position of need, they might go with the 91. But I think they are at the point where if the higher position of need is an 85, and the BPA is 93, they would take the BPA.

-Hypothetical question. If the Dolphins drafted Graham Barton, and he filled a need at guard (low positional value), and turned out to be a good and productive NFL player, but not elite, while skipping over a guy like Laiatu Latu, who turns out to be an elite edge rusher (high positional value), would Barton still turn out to be a good draft pick in retrospect?

I honestly go back and forth on this. Am curious what other people think? Where I am coming out now, before other thoughts, is Barton would still have been an OK pick. Simply, you can do a lot worse, and draft a bust. At least he was pretty good. You will never be perfect all of the time. If these kinds of mistakes are your worst mistakes, you will still be pretty good.

Thoughts on both issues?

I think specifics like that are oversimplifications, unless we had access to all the information, scouting reports, etc as the ones making the decisions.

However, in general, I take the better long-term prospect over a lesser player of "need".

 

[DrMultimedia]

I never know if we are there, but I think you should always take who you think is bpa. Unfortunately everyone has different thoughts. Especially when Iggyness is involved. Lol

 

[JamesWsenior]

I think specifics like that are oversimplifications, unless we had access to all the information, scouting reports, etc as the ones making the decisions.

However, in general, I take the better long-term prospect over a lesser player of "need".

Normally I would agree but I am working on two assumptions.

1. Tua will be signed long term
2. He needs to remain upright and have more than 2.1 seconds to throw
2a. Our running game is deadly when we have some proper lineman..until they get injured.

We will see soon enough which way we go.

Would not surprise me to see us go Edge but even if I could read Grier's mind, not sure I would want to. A bit like knowing what's under the Christmas tree before Christmas

 

[phinsforlife]

I think specifics like that are oversimplifications, unless we had access to all the information, scouting reports, etc as the ones making the decisions.

However, in general, I take the better long-term prospect over a lesser player of "need".

thank you for lecturing me again with your first sentence. i feel like i am a wiser and better person. that also had nothing to do whatsoever with the question i asked. the notion of going BPA is based on their view of who the BPA is, so it accounts for all the information you cite. the question was not my view or your view of BPA, it is their view of BPA. the question clearly says "their board." i would hope the dolphins have access to their own scouting reports. but thank you.

 

[The Goat]

Unless I’m mistaken, Grier has openly stated that they’re going BPA.

 

[The Goat]

thank you for lecturing me again with your first sentence. i feel like i am a wiser and better person. that also had nothing to do whatsoever with the question i asked. the notion of going BPA is based on their view of who the BPA is, so it accounts for all the information you cite. the question was not my view or your view of BPA, it is their view of BPA. the question clearly says "their board." i would hope the dolphins have access to their own scouting reports. but thank you.

He wasn’t lecturing. He literally started his reply with “I think.”

He was giving his opinion.

 

[phinsforlife]

Unless I’m mistaken, Grier has openly stated that they’re going BPA.

i agree. i believe he has said that. but do you believe they are in a position to do it? like i said, i kind of think they are, give or take. also i would discount what grier is saying a bit, because you kind of have to say that. nobody wants to say "we took a player that we don't think is as good as a few players we passed on."

 

[phinsforlife]

He wasn’t lecturing. He literally started his reply with “I think.”

He was giving his opinion.

no, he told me i was being simplistic. and if you would have seen his prior comments to me you would understand my reaction.

 

[Mach2]

Normally I would agree but I am working on two assumptions.

1. Tua will be signed long term
2. He needs to remain upright and have more than 2.1 seconds to throw
2a. Our running game is deadly when we have some proper lineman..until they get injured.

We will see soon enough which way we go.

Would not surprise me to see us go Edge but even if I could read Grier's mind, not sure I would want to. A bit like knowing what's under the Christmas tree before Christmas

A lot would depend on what they think of our current Oline, expectations of how players have developed, etc.

 

[The Goat]

-Have the Dolphins put themselves in a spot where they can go BPA with their first two picks?

I think give or take close enough, need might over-ride something if their board has a guy rated 91 at a higher position of need, and the BPA is a 93 at a lesser position of need, they might go with the 91. But I think they are at the point where if the higher position of need is an 85, and the BPA is 93, they would take the BPA.

-Hypothetical question. Using these players only for illustrative purposes only, it could be player A versus B to take the names out of it. If the Dolphins drafted Graham Barton, and he filled a need at guard (low positional value), and turned out to be a good and productive NFL player, but not elite, while skipping over a guy like Laiatu Latu, who turns out to be an elite edge rusher (high positional value), would Barton still turn out to be a good draft pick in retrospect?

I honestly go back and forth on this. Am curious what other people think? Where I am coming out now, before other thoughts, is Barton would still have been an OK pick. Simply, you can do a lot worse, and draft a bust. At least he was pretty good. You will never be perfect all of the time. If these kinds of mistakes are your worst mistakes, you will still be pretty good.

Thoughts on both issues?

I am of the opinion that positional value could very easily factor into what a team considers as “BPA.”

For example, fifth-year options on EDGE, DT, QB, WR, CB are worth figuring into one’s “BPA” calculations, just because that buys you an extra year on the first contract.

 

[The Goat]

i agree. i believe he has said that. but do you believe they are in a position to do it? like i said, i kind of think they are, give or take. also i would discount what grier is saying a bit, because you kind of have to say that. nobody wants to say "we took a player that we don't think is as good as a few players we passed on."

Yes. I believe they’re in a position to do it.

 

[phinsforlife]

I am of the opinion that positional value could very easily factor into what a team considers as “BPA.”

For example, fifth-year options on EDGE, DT, QB, WR, CB are worth figuring into one’s “BPA” calculations, just because that buys you an extra year on the first contract.

so i disagree. once you are thinking about that stuff, you are back to need, not BPA, in the classical sense

 

[The Goat]

no, he told me i was being simplistic. and if you would have seen his prior comments to me you would understand my reaction.

Maybe consider that the prior comments are influencing your reaction.

Mach and I get into it sometimes, but we get over it.












Usually because he realizes I’m right.