Mello Yello
Club Member
There seems to be an accepted narrative now that our issue in big games is really the offense’s problem and that this limitation stems from a talent deficiency at “WR3” which is basically taken to mean, 'anyone not named Hill or Waddle.'
I want offer a warning against buying into that too easily because it stands to reason that what people are saying here is that by sinking more resources into the WR position, the Dolphins would automatically generate the offensive production needed to ascend into playing competitive Playoff football.
My suspicion is that it's a bit more tricky than that. It's going to have to do more with X's and O's than simply buying talent.
Understanding the initial problem…
We once blamed our skill positions with good reason. Between ’20 and ’21 the Dolphins lacked elite weapons. At the time, our pass catchers were guys like Parker and Gesicki who ranked at the bottom of the league in terms separation. This was a problem.
Someone once said that Tua was good because he gave guys like Lynn Bowden, Mack Hollins and Mike Gesicki career years. That doesn't really ring as true as just saying, 'the Dolphins sucked because in Miami those guys were considered key starters.'
The 1st fix…
This weakness was first addressed by spending a Top-10 draft pick on a WR. Sure, the Dolphins traded down a few spots*, but they initially sat at #3 and had their pick of literally any non-QB in the draft. Jaylen Waddle was essentially selected as the most preferable option from among a deep WR class because not only was he fast, agile and elusive but he also had a prior relationship with Tua which could be exploited even further.
It’s hard to imagine a team not expecting this investment to turn into their #1 guy. For instance, Ja’Marr Chase, who we essentially let go to the Bengals through our actions, is now their unquestioned #1 and Kyle Pitts (another option available to us) led the Falcons in receiving yards before injuries became an issue for him more recently.
*more on that later
The 2nd fix…
The Dolphins later traded a host of picks (R1, R2, R4, R4 and R6) for another star WR who much like before, was brought in because he was fast, agile and elusive. When Hill & Waddle first took the field together in ’22 they were unanimously seen across media circles as the most dynamic duo in the NFL. Articles were written about the insanity of having both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill together on the same team.
The obvious problem…
Miami traded as many assets as a team could to secure two WRs who could get open. If our complaint today is that these two guys can’t get open that speaks to the strategy itself being foolish. We should therefore hesitate when claims are made that “better WRs” will fix our offensive problem(s).
If on the other hand, Hill & Waddle are indeed separating and getting open we should therefore blame other factors and thus not continually sink resources into “better WRs” aimed at correcting what apparently isn’t a WR problem. Once we fix WR3, what's to stop claims about WR4 needing attention immediately thereafter?
What Miami has invested at WR...
With all that went on in the '21 trades between the Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles not to mention the '22 deal with the Chiefs, it's easy to get confused. Let me summarize it all as succinctly as I can.
In 2021 Miami spent the #3 overall pick to get:
(1) Jaylen Waddle
(2) an extra R3 pick in '22*
(3) an extra R1 pick in '23**
* I won't re-hash the entire Hill trade but you can think of it this way, Hill and Waddle each cost a R1 pick. If you're willing to ignore later rounds, we essentially lost R2, R4 and R4 picks but gained a R3 pick. So on the whole I'd say we netted a loss of roughly ~R2 pick plus us having to pay Tyreek Hill.
** Miami ended up spending that extra '23 R1 pick on Chubb's 2022 year alone. That was part of his 5th year extension which Denver had awarded the year prior and which we got the rights to. He was set to hit FA immediately thereafter and Miami paid him as such when they acquired him. So we basically spent that extra R1 pick we'd earned for 1-year of Bradley Chubb playing for us during which we could privately negotiate with him before he hit FA. Ehhhh, that feels like a lot, doesn't it? That's another discussion.
So you've invested:
R1 pick (Waddle)
R1 pick (Hill)
R2 pick (Hill)
R4 pick (Ezukanma lost to injury)
And meanwhile decided that FAs River Cracraft, Trent Sherfield, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios are insufficient to do the job.
This isn't necessarily "too much" but it's enough to warrant some questions. It's enough to give you pause when someone claims Miami lacks WR talent.
The obvious problem...
Everyone was accepting about the acquisition of Cedrick Wilson who'd produced 600-yds receiving on 60 targets with the Cowboys at 13.5-ypc average the year prior. He looked like a solid contributor and strong depth for Miami. Not surprisingly, Wilson averaged 13.5-ypc last year in Miami just as he had in Dallas, so why all the complaining?
Well, in Dallas he was targeted twice as often. In Miami, his involvement dropped by ~40% as did his production. He yardage fell from 600- to 300-yds. His catches fell from 45 to 22. His scoring went from 6-TDs to just 3. It wasn't an issue of ability as much as involvement.
We can compare Braxton Berrios' 2021 year with the Jets to his 2023 year with the Dolphins and see the exact same thing. He's involved at only a 50% rate in Miami and his production fell by half.
So why are we complaining? It's not that these guys aren't who we thought they were. They're exactly who they were in Dallas and NY. We're just not throwing them the ball and that makes perfect sense when we've invested so many picks and so much money in featuring Hill & Waddle.
On targeting your best weapons:
Here are some of the 2023 teams that dumped targets to prominent pairings:
286 tgts - Raiders - Adams & Meyers
284 tgts - Lions - St. Brown & LaPorta (TE)
282 tgts - Cowboys - Lamb & Ferguson (TE)
275 tgts - Dolphins - Hill & Waddle (down from a league-leading 287 last year w. the duo missing a combined 4 games)
270 tgts - Eagles - Brown & Smith
266 tgts - Buccaneers - Evans & Godwin
255 tgts - Rams - Nakua & Cupp
254 tgts - Colts - Pittman & Downs
It's clear that Miami is near the top in targeting their primary duo but it's not unheard-of. Most good offenses have at least 1 star WR and many either feed a 2nd WR or a star TE like LaPorta in DET, Ferguson in DAL or Hockenson in MIN.
It's also clear that Hill being targeted ~10x per game isn't out of the ordinary for an elite pass catcher. Tons of other top names see roughly the same amount of balls be they Davante Adams, Travis Kelce or Justin Jefferson. If you believe Tyreek is special (which everyone does) there's nothing wrong with his 170 targets (although that would've been ~180 had he not missed a game this year).
Still, he's never actually led the NFL in targets.
Summary...
So what exactly is the problem with WR3 in Miami? Our QB just lead the entire NFL is passing yardage and we want what exactly, more production from WR3?
The obvious question here is why not just achieve that by throwing more towards Cedrick Wilson, River Cracraft or Braxton Berrios who we know can produce more if thrown to? What are the odds we're going to not only draft someone better but also be able to use that player more effectively when we're already leaving food on the table with the guys we have?
Furthermore, we haven't really made a dent in this supposed "problem" even after addressing it last year with multiple new resources being added. There's reason to believe adding more WR talent ain't the fix because this isn't even the problem.
None of those guys we brought in failed us. Quite the contrary, the evidence suggests we failed them. We've acquired them and used them less than what their previous teams did. Even Cracraft (who averages about 1 target per game for us) got about that same amount in SF believe it or not before you ever heard his name.
The last time we "featured" a WR3 was when we threw 51 times to Sherfield in 2022. That was an offense many felt was in some ways better and more balanced than in 2023. But in reality, those Sherfield targets were really just split between Berrios (33) and another 20 going to Wilson Jr last year so not much actually changed.
Keep in mind that Hill got 10 targets per game in '22 and 10.7 in '23 so that wasn't a huge swing and considering the guy was going to 2k, we can all understand the additional 0.7 being added.
And Waddle was about the same per game as well. His targets dipped slightly because of 3 missed games in '23. Mostert didn't change much. Achane entered the picture of course but that should've helped in spreading it around.
What changed?
In short, Gesicki left. While he wasn't the most ideal TE, he was nonetheless a TE worth throwing to. Between he and Smythe the TE position saw 72 targets in '22. That number dropped by almost half last year.
Okay, so we signed Jonnu Smith who showed in TEN, NE and ATL that he's capable of sharing the load and putting up a few hundred yards. However, in an NFL where the top TEs typically see between 100-140 targets (competing for the "WR2" spot), the fact Smythe only attracted 43 (which ranked T30) really tells the tale.
Jonnu Smith got 70 targets last year in ATL (18th best) so he's far from "great" but he's not bad. He's just badly needed.
Notice though that TEs start to become somewhat irrelevant once they're producing <35-yds per game which equates to about the Top-16 or so and that's where Smith sits so he's not exactly a "fix."
Obviously Jonnu Smith is a welcome addition but we still need a real stud. If Durham Smythe is our Dawson Knox we need our Dalton Kincaid, someone worthy of the Top-10. FWIW, Durham Smythe ranked 32nd among all TEs with only 23 yards per game. The dude is a weakness and thus so is the position in Miami. He's a big reason we're seen as "not a physical team."
And I seriously doubt he's going to double-up with Jonnu Smith. We're simply going to lean on Smith because he's better.
Was Smith held back in Tennessee? No. In NE? Possibly. Their offense sucks and he split time with Hunter Henry. Was he held back in ATL? Sure. He split time with Kyle Pitts and that hurts. But is he enough to help Miami with the "WR3 problem?"
For me, I suspect Miami will rely on a combination of things including (1) the WR3's they have, (2) an increased role for Achane and (3) Jonnu Smith stepping up into being a starting-caliber guy.
I don't know where this leaves us but I don't see WR being a R1, in fact I see Miami studying the TE a bit more if the talent is there in R2.
I'm on record as saying R1 is going to be OL. I'd be shocked if we went WR higher than R2 and that's only if the right guy falls.
I want offer a warning against buying into that too easily because it stands to reason that what people are saying here is that by sinking more resources into the WR position, the Dolphins would automatically generate the offensive production needed to ascend into playing competitive Playoff football.
My suspicion is that it's a bit more tricky than that. It's going to have to do more with X's and O's than simply buying talent.
Understanding the initial problem…
We once blamed our skill positions with good reason. Between ’20 and ’21 the Dolphins lacked elite weapons. At the time, our pass catchers were guys like Parker and Gesicki who ranked at the bottom of the league in terms separation. This was a problem.
Someone once said that Tua was good because he gave guys like Lynn Bowden, Mack Hollins and Mike Gesicki career years. That doesn't really ring as true as just saying, 'the Dolphins sucked because in Miami those guys were considered key starters.'
The 1st fix…
This weakness was first addressed by spending a Top-10 draft pick on a WR. Sure, the Dolphins traded down a few spots*, but they initially sat at #3 and had their pick of literally any non-QB in the draft. Jaylen Waddle was essentially selected as the most preferable option from among a deep WR class because not only was he fast, agile and elusive but he also had a prior relationship with Tua which could be exploited even further.
It’s hard to imagine a team not expecting this investment to turn into their #1 guy. For instance, Ja’Marr Chase, who we essentially let go to the Bengals through our actions, is now their unquestioned #1 and Kyle Pitts (another option available to us) led the Falcons in receiving yards before injuries became an issue for him more recently.
*more on that later
The 2nd fix…
The Dolphins later traded a host of picks (R1, R2, R4, R4 and R6) for another star WR who much like before, was brought in because he was fast, agile and elusive. When Hill & Waddle first took the field together in ’22 they were unanimously seen across media circles as the most dynamic duo in the NFL. Articles were written about the insanity of having both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill together on the same team.
The obvious problem…
Miami traded as many assets as a team could to secure two WRs who could get open. If our complaint today is that these two guys can’t get open that speaks to the strategy itself being foolish. We should therefore hesitate when claims are made that “better WRs” will fix our offensive problem(s).
If on the other hand, Hill & Waddle are indeed separating and getting open we should therefore blame other factors and thus not continually sink resources into “better WRs” aimed at correcting what apparently isn’t a WR problem. Once we fix WR3, what's to stop claims about WR4 needing attention immediately thereafter?
What Miami has invested at WR...
With all that went on in the '21 trades between the Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles not to mention the '22 deal with the Chiefs, it's easy to get confused. Let me summarize it all as succinctly as I can.
In 2021 Miami spent the #3 overall pick to get:
(1) Jaylen Waddle
(2) an extra R3 pick in '22*
(3) an extra R1 pick in '23**
* I won't re-hash the entire Hill trade but you can think of it this way, Hill and Waddle each cost a R1 pick. If you're willing to ignore later rounds, we essentially lost R2, R4 and R4 picks but gained a R3 pick. So on the whole I'd say we netted a loss of roughly ~R2 pick plus us having to pay Tyreek Hill.
** Miami ended up spending that extra '23 R1 pick on Chubb's 2022 year alone. That was part of his 5th year extension which Denver had awarded the year prior and which we got the rights to. He was set to hit FA immediately thereafter and Miami paid him as such when they acquired him. So we basically spent that extra R1 pick we'd earned for 1-year of Bradley Chubb playing for us during which we could privately negotiate with him before he hit FA. Ehhhh, that feels like a lot, doesn't it? That's another discussion.
So you've invested:
R1 pick (Waddle)
R1 pick (Hill)
R2 pick (Hill)
R4 pick (Ezukanma lost to injury)
And meanwhile decided that FAs River Cracraft, Trent Sherfield, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios are insufficient to do the job.
This isn't necessarily "too much" but it's enough to warrant some questions. It's enough to give you pause when someone claims Miami lacks WR talent.
The obvious problem...
Everyone was accepting about the acquisition of Cedrick Wilson who'd produced 600-yds receiving on 60 targets with the Cowboys at 13.5-ypc average the year prior. He looked like a solid contributor and strong depth for Miami. Not surprisingly, Wilson averaged 13.5-ypc last year in Miami just as he had in Dallas, so why all the complaining?
Well, in Dallas he was targeted twice as often. In Miami, his involvement dropped by ~40% as did his production. He yardage fell from 600- to 300-yds. His catches fell from 45 to 22. His scoring went from 6-TDs to just 3. It wasn't an issue of ability as much as involvement.
We can compare Braxton Berrios' 2021 year with the Jets to his 2023 year with the Dolphins and see the exact same thing. He's involved at only a 50% rate in Miami and his production fell by half.
So why are we complaining? It's not that these guys aren't who we thought they were. They're exactly who they were in Dallas and NY. We're just not throwing them the ball and that makes perfect sense when we've invested so many picks and so much money in featuring Hill & Waddle.
On targeting your best weapons:
Here are some of the 2023 teams that dumped targets to prominent pairings:
286 tgts - Raiders - Adams & Meyers
284 tgts - Lions - St. Brown & LaPorta (TE)
282 tgts - Cowboys - Lamb & Ferguson (TE)
275 tgts - Dolphins - Hill & Waddle (down from a league-leading 287 last year w. the duo missing a combined 4 games)
270 tgts - Eagles - Brown & Smith
266 tgts - Buccaneers - Evans & Godwin
255 tgts - Rams - Nakua & Cupp
254 tgts - Colts - Pittman & Downs
It's clear that Miami is near the top in targeting their primary duo but it's not unheard-of. Most good offenses have at least 1 star WR and many either feed a 2nd WR or a star TE like LaPorta in DET, Ferguson in DAL or Hockenson in MIN.
It's also clear that Hill being targeted ~10x per game isn't out of the ordinary for an elite pass catcher. Tons of other top names see roughly the same amount of balls be they Davante Adams, Travis Kelce or Justin Jefferson. If you believe Tyreek is special (which everyone does) there's nothing wrong with his 170 targets (although that would've been ~180 had he not missed a game this year).
Still, he's never actually led the NFL in targets.
Summary...
So what exactly is the problem with WR3 in Miami? Our QB just lead the entire NFL is passing yardage and we want what exactly, more production from WR3?
The obvious question here is why not just achieve that by throwing more towards Cedrick Wilson, River Cracraft or Braxton Berrios who we know can produce more if thrown to? What are the odds we're going to not only draft someone better but also be able to use that player more effectively when we're already leaving food on the table with the guys we have?
Furthermore, we haven't really made a dent in this supposed "problem" even after addressing it last year with multiple new resources being added. There's reason to believe adding more WR talent ain't the fix because this isn't even the problem.
None of those guys we brought in failed us. Quite the contrary, the evidence suggests we failed them. We've acquired them and used them less than what their previous teams did. Even Cracraft (who averages about 1 target per game for us) got about that same amount in SF believe it or not before you ever heard his name.
The last time we "featured" a WR3 was when we threw 51 times to Sherfield in 2022. That was an offense many felt was in some ways better and more balanced than in 2023. But in reality, those Sherfield targets were really just split between Berrios (33) and another 20 going to Wilson Jr last year so not much actually changed.
Keep in mind that Hill got 10 targets per game in '22 and 10.7 in '23 so that wasn't a huge swing and considering the guy was going to 2k, we can all understand the additional 0.7 being added.
And Waddle was about the same per game as well. His targets dipped slightly because of 3 missed games in '23. Mostert didn't change much. Achane entered the picture of course but that should've helped in spreading it around.
What changed?
In short, Gesicki left. While he wasn't the most ideal TE, he was nonetheless a TE worth throwing to. Between he and Smythe the TE position saw 72 targets in '22. That number dropped by almost half last year.
Okay, so we signed Jonnu Smith who showed in TEN, NE and ATL that he's capable of sharing the load and putting up a few hundred yards. However, in an NFL where the top TEs typically see between 100-140 targets (competing for the "WR2" spot), the fact Smythe only attracted 43 (which ranked T30) really tells the tale.
Jonnu Smith got 70 targets last year in ATL (18th best) so he's far from "great" but he's not bad. He's just badly needed.
Notice though that TEs start to become somewhat irrelevant once they're producing <35-yds per game which equates to about the Top-16 or so and that's where Smith sits so he's not exactly a "fix."
Obviously Jonnu Smith is a welcome addition but we still need a real stud. If Durham Smythe is our Dawson Knox we need our Dalton Kincaid, someone worthy of the Top-10. FWIW, Durham Smythe ranked 32nd among all TEs with only 23 yards per game. The dude is a weakness and thus so is the position in Miami. He's a big reason we're seen as "not a physical team."
And I seriously doubt he's going to double-up with Jonnu Smith. We're simply going to lean on Smith because he's better.
Was Smith held back in Tennessee? No. In NE? Possibly. Their offense sucks and he split time with Hunter Henry. Was he held back in ATL? Sure. He split time with Kyle Pitts and that hurts. But is he enough to help Miami with the "WR3 problem?"
For me, I suspect Miami will rely on a combination of things including (1) the WR3's they have, (2) an increased role for Achane and (3) Jonnu Smith stepping up into being a starting-caliber guy.
I don't know where this leaves us but I don't see WR being a R1, in fact I see Miami studying the TE a bit more if the talent is there in R2.
I'm on record as saying R1 is going to be OL. I'd be shocked if we went WR higher than R2 and that's only if the right guy falls.
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