The Dolphins Running Back Room Will Be? | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The Dolphins Running Back Room Will Be?

MrChadRico said:
The short yardage run plays and their lack of success, had more to do with how bad we were on the Oline at Run-blocking than the RBs. Especially after guys started getting hurt.

This is why I want Van Roten so bad. He's such a good run blocker.
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We were quite successful on 3rd and short whenever Mostert ran it… including the couple chances they let him do it late in the season.
 
I've been saying for a couple years now, Mostert looks like he runs angry and with power. If i wouldn't known his stigma as a "speed back" I would've considered him just an all around back with speed and power. I dont think we have to have a 6'4" 230 pound running back to see a power run up the middle. He's not Jerome Bettis who was a HB in a FB's body, but he's also not Chase Edmonds who was gonna blow over when touched
 
if it was up to me it'd be Moster/Achane/Wright/Brooks with Ingold as the FB

Brooks could go on the PS thought in which case Wilson would make it......I highly doubt we only carry 3 RB's.......one thing to keep in mind is that RB #4 is either inactive on game day or he must play ST's in which case it'd help Brooks make it.
 
phinsforlife said:
i think it is hard to know. did they not run on 3rd and short because they felt like the couldn't (OL or RBs), and they had to pass? then the fact that they often passed on 3rd and short made it easier for them the times they ran because teams were partly defending the pass due to the tendencies they saw on film, so their apparent success running on 3rd and short is not as good as it looks? or did they not run on 3rd and short bc mcdaniel thought he was playing madden football? so hard to know.

other odd thing is no QB sneaks. tua is built like a brick sh*thouse. he probably weighted 220 by the end of the year, and his legs are like tree trunks. although short, he is not tiny. really strange they could not sneak the ball better with him. some of these skinny and weak looking QBs like jared goff seem to sneak it just fine, tom brady was the master.

re the big gains passing on 3rd and short, my view is first things first. the most important thing to do is to stay on the field, and convert the third down. time of posession also helps the defense. it is a complimentary game.
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Objectively, when they gave the ball to regular RBs and ran a real short yardage run they converted. I don't claim to know how McD was feeling or his confidence level, but I think he was misguided. I don't think throwing so much opened things up for the run game. First, many of the passing failures were front-loaded in the season. The first 6 times of the season all failed and were mixed with successful run attempts early in the season. Second, those 3rd/4th and 1-2 plays are still presumptive run plays and no defense is feeling out for a pass play in those situations even if your tendency has been to throw 60% of the time in those situations.

I think the choice not to sneak with Tua was to protect him and related to the concussion issue. I'm OK with not using Tua for it as there's no real element of surprise to the Tush Push and you could use someone bigger and stronger, e.g., Jonnu Smith or Julian Hill (HS QB). But when the Dolphins did do it with Tua (or Smythe or Ingold) they didn't use a "push" component. The push isn't always necessary, but it can help. I get the impression that the Dolphins just never really practiced it much. supposedly some teams just don't and others do. the Eagles, who have been very successful with it, supposedly practice it a lot. IMO the Dolphins should too. If you can make it nearly automatic like Philly has it is a game-changer.

If you are in your own territory and face a 3rd and 1, a 78 yd TD is FAR better than a 1 yard run to extend a drive that still may not result in points of any kind. Especially, if you still have a chance to get it on 4th down if you fail on 3rd. The deep shots were really all on 3rd down plays, not 4th down.
 
I am still surprised we traded a 3rd next season to pick a RB. We just used a 3rd to pick Achane in 2023. That’s a lot of investment in the backfield.

We need a reliable running game against good teams and playoff weather. Offense can’t be boom or bust with Tyreek/Waddle.
 
Atila said:
We were quite successful on 3rd and short whenever Mostert ran it… including the couple chances they let him do it late in the season.
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He picked up a huge gain on third and short in that final drive against Dallas, and quite honestly i think it was in part because Dallas didn't think it was coming lol

EDIT: It was Jeff Wilson not Mostert, just re-watched it.
 
I think we see Ahmed hang around in some capacity. Maybe due to injury or whatever. When he flashes, he flashes. He has value.

Wilson is the odd man out and Brooks likely to PS.
 
Fineas said:
Objectively, when they gave the ball to regular RBs and ran a real short yardage run they converted. I don't claim to know how McD was feeling or his confidence level, but I think he was misguided. I don't think throwing so much opened things up for the run game. First, many of the passing failures were front-loaded in the season. The first 6 times of the season all failed and were mixed with successful run attempts early in the season. Second, those 3rd/4th and 1-2 plays are still presumptive run plays and no defense is feeling out for a pass play in those situations even if your tendency has been to throw 60% of the time in those situations.

I think the choice not to sneak with Tua was to protect him and related to the concussion issue. I'm OK with not using Tua for it as there's no real element of surprise to the Tush Push and you could use someone bigger and stronger, e.g., Jonnu Smith or Julian Hill (HS QB). But when the Dolphins did do it with Tua (or Smythe or Ingold) they didn't use a "push" component. The push isn't always necessary, but it can help. I get the impression that the Dolphins just never really practiced it much. supposedly some teams just don't and others do. the Eagles, who have been very successful with it, supposedly practice it a lot. IMO the Dolphins should too. If you can make it nearly automatic like Philly has it is a game-changer.

If you are in your own territory and face a 3rd and 1, a 78 yd TD is FAR better than a 1 yard run to extend a drive that still may not result in points of any kind. Especially, if you still have a chance to get it on 4th down if you fail on 3rd. The deep shots were really all on 3rd down plays, not 4th down.
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regarding the QB sneaks, i have never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak. it is like a big mush pile, as opposed to bodies flying around at high velocity. the good sneakers like brady often seem to find an open gap and slide through there. from my perspective at least, i don't think the qb sneak is a big injury risk play.

regarding your last point, yes a 78 yard TD is better, but that is not what happens with any frequency, even for the dolphins with all of their weapons. this i think is where simple analytics can be misleading. using simple numbers, if throw on 3rd and 1, your average gain on a successful play might be 8 yards, but you might convert only 50% of the time, so the expected value is 4 yards. if run, your average gain on a successful play might be 1.5 yards, you convert 90% of the time, so your expected value is 1.35.

so 4 is better than 1.35, therefore always pass, right? absolutely not. what the expected value calculation ignores is the value of extending the drive, as opposed to having to punt. in the case of running, 90% of the time, you get 3 more downs. the value of that more than offsets the fewer expected yards gained by running vs passing. basically you just want to call the highest probability play that converts the third down.

further, if it is 3rd and 2, if run, even if dont make, you often turn it into 4th and 1, then much easier chance of converting the 4th and 1 than the 4th and 2 if pass, and you fail 50% of the time. this is the eagles tush push strategy. 3rd and 2 or 3, they just tush push, and do it twice if they need to, almost always get the first down. free money for those guys
 
phinsforlife said:
regarding the QB sneaks, i have never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak. it is like a big mush pile, as opposed to bodies flying around at high velocity. the good sneakers like brady often seem to find an open gap and slide through there. from my perspective at least, i don't think the qb sneak is a big injury risk play.

regarding your last point, yes a 78 yard TD is better, but that is not what happens with any frequency, even for the dolphins with all of their weapons. this i think is where simple analytics can be misleading. using simple numbers, if throw on 3rd and 1, your average gain on a successful play might be 8 yards, but you might convert only 50% of the time, so the expected value is 4 yards. if run, your average gain on a successful play might be 1.5 yards, you convert 90% of the time, so your expected value is 1.35.

so 4 is better than 1.35, therefore always pass, right? absolutely not. what the expected value calculation ignores is the value of extending the drive, as opposed to having to punt. in the case of running, 90% of the time, you get 3 more downs. the value of that more than offsets the fewer expected yards gained by running vs passing. basically you just want to call the highest probability play that converts the third down.

further, if it is 3rd and 2, if run, even if dont make, you often turn it into 4th and 1, then much easier chance of converting the 4th and 1 than the 4th and 2 if pass, and you fail 50% of the time. this is the eagles tush push strategy. 3rd and 2 or 3, they just tush push, and do it twice if they need to, almost always get the first down. free money for those guys
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I agree with running more, but certainly a 78 yd TD is worth more than a 2 yd first down that still leaves you 40+ yards from scoring 3 and 76 from scoring 6/7. Those don’t happen often but they do have considerable value that should be considered. That is especially true if it is 3rd and 1 and even if incomplete you can convert on 4th and 1.
 
j0hnny63 said:
I think we see Ahmed hang around in some capacity. Maybe due to injury or whatever. When he flashes, he flashes. He has value.

Wilson is the odd man out and Brooks likely to PS.
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As in flash in the pan? Any stats in him from last 2-3 years?
 
You can almost bank on at least 1 or 2 of our RB’s will be banged up in some capacity to start the season. Then when they come back another one will go down ect. I say they all make the team due to injuries throughout the season.
 
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