I was thinking the same exact thing.
3 year 75 million extension for Devonte Smith w/ Eagles
- Thread starter CF Dolphan
- Start date
DolfanDaveInMI
Active Roster
For all practical purposes they do.
Tyreek's base salary for 2026 is funny money and there is no way he sees any of it. He's already said 2025 will be his last season. So 2024 is the last year of Waddle's rookie contract, 2025 is the 5th-year option, and 2026-28 will be the three-year extension -- with a small amount of it front-loaded as a signing bonus.
Mello Yello
Club Member
It's a valid question.
Most "elite" WR1's tend to accumulate 150-180 targets per year. For instance, Tyreek Hill has been among the leaders in both '22 and '23 with roughly 170 targets per season. Ceedee Lamb got 180 this past year. Justin Jefferson got 180 the year before.
Meanwhile, over those same 2 seasons, Waddle's been involved at a rate that would result in about 120 targets over 17 games. His involvement under McDaniel is that of a strong WR2 or lower tier WR1 who's part of a duo.
Asking Waddle to step up without losing a ton of efficiency would be a new challenge for both Waddle and the Dolphins. We saw Waddle involved with 140 targets thru 16 games in '21 but his yds/catch dropped terribly to around 10 as he was stuck fulfilling the duties of a possession-WR.
Along those lines, a WR's involvement tends to lead to decreasing efficiency. Here are Waddle's 3 seasons sorted by increasing involvement. Notice how the efficiency drops as the targets rise:
6.9 tgts/gm - 18 yd/rec - Yr #2
7.4 tgts/gm - 14 yd/rec - Yr #3
8.8 tgts/gm - 10 yd/rec - Yr #1
If Waddle was targeted 150 times (or roughly 8.8 tgts/gm) I'd expect a yd/rec average somewhere between the Flores & McDaniel years...maybe 12.5 yds/rec?
That'd equate to:
100 rec
150 tgts
1,250 yds
The question of what to pay for that is a fair one. Tyreek Hill can handle 170 targets and play thru the injuries. He's also explosive as heck. Both Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson can handle 180 targets and still keep a 14-15 yd/rec average. Ceedee Lamb only produces about 12-13 yds/rec but he's able to handle 180 targets per year.
One has to question just how easily Waddle could "replace Hill" as the WR1 in Miami. Waddle has never shown what the aforementioned "elites" have from the standpoint of providing both involvement and efficiency.
Can Waddle keep the efficiency up as Hill and Jefferson do? The stats say otherwise.
Can Waddle drastically increase his workload without injury? His injuries in '23 say otherwise.
Those are huge risks the team won't ignore so I doubt they throw huge money at him or simply assume they can easily ratchet-up his targets without an unwanted decline in efficiency.
Waddle's projections are not "elite" like Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb or Justin Jefferson. Waddle would be a lower-tier WR1 who'd need another prominent WR beside him, not unlike Devonta Smith and AJ Brown in Philly. So I strongly suspect Miami will re-sign him at a Smith-like number and draft a WR up high either in R2 this year or R1 next year.
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gfish24
Rookie
Easier said than done
Are the same guys saying "wait to sign Waddle until x, y, or z happens" the same guys that cry a river about Grier not locking up our young talent early when it can be done cheaper?
Realize in a few years when the salaries for an extension given now kick in, the WR price will be even higher.
Realize in a few years when the salaries for an extension given now kick in, the WR price will be even higher.
yep, give him 25 or 26 per nd see if he bites
I get the premise of the write up, but understand year 1 was with Flores and the 2 offensive coordinator system lol, and a lack of talent around Waddle. It's really not a comparable item from years 2 and 3 to year 1, since we can all agree the offense McD brought is vastly different.
I don't believe for a second that Waddle would revert to year 1 numbers with McD with a larger target share. We shall see in a few years though as Waddle will be the Reek replacement.
Waddle is our guy