Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think? | Page 16 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

Mello Yello said:
I think you are confused. You seem to get defensive about stuff that's basic business which leads to you being emotional about the topic and subsequently a bit rude.

For instance, your 2nd sentence doesn't even make sense. It's trying to be witty or something? C'mon, man.




Again, you're just rude to people, Bob.
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Actually, I think my second sentence is pretty clear and I don't think it is offensive at all. I'm sorry you don't understand it.
 
Mello Yello said:
I'd say ~60% of those were actual "drops" and the others were anticipatory throws that are sometimes just a little outside the WR's window because they're thrown so early or are already on the WR when he turns his head around. It's the nature of Tua's game that he's going to put a lot of pressure on WRs to be open early and to be ready.

You can't expect high and behind to be caught on a slant for instance. And you can't expect a catch just because the WR got his outstretched fingertips on a slight overthrow. That's just football.


Still, I think Hill presses in some games or when he's on the verge of scoring (as anyone in any sport would) and it's just a thing we have to deal with. You can't sit and cry about drops when the entire passing offense is built to feature a single, special, probably HoF-bound WR. You have to accept his drops because you have no other choice.

Do we blame Tua? No, most certainly not. I've said that I thought he played great against LAC and PHI and looked like "big game Tua" in the early part of the season.
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What? There was like 1 throw vs kc that
Mello Yello said:
I'd say ~60% of those were actual "drops" and the others were anticipatory throws that are sometimes just a little outside the WR's window because they're thrown so early or are already on the WR when he turns his head around. It's the nature of Tua's game that he's going to put a lot of pressure on WRs to be open early and to be ready.

You can't expect high and behind to be caught on a slant for instance. And you can't expect a catch just because the WR got his outstretched fingertips on a slight overthrow. That's just football.


Still, I think Hill presses in some games or when he's on the verge of scoring (as anyone in any sport would) and it's just a thing we have to deal with. You can't sit and cry about drops when the entire passing offense is built to feature a single, special, probably HoF-bound WR. You have to accept his drops because you have no other choice.

Do we blame Tua? No, most certainly not. I've said that I thought he played great against LAC and PHI and looked like "big game Tua" in the early part of the season.
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What? There’s 1 throw out of like 10 that’s behind the rest are perfectly in stride hitting both hands, watch the video again..

And again as stated that’s just hill. There were other throws that were dropped by other wideouts and td’s called back in those games due to penalties.

Yeah don’t blame hill but that doesn’t make just about every one of those throws perfect and the point is that Tua made those plays all which wildly effected each of those games. People are blaming Tua and looking at stats only not the actual game. Had they watched the actual game they’d see Tua played borderline great in all those games. Could he had played elite like in other games sure but none of those games were remotely on Tua’s play.
 
phinsforlife said:
Once again I do not think you processed a word of what I said.

Side point, comps can also be very dangerous, and wise people know when not to use them. Housing in 2008, you could have purchased a home at a 5pct discount to comps, but still overpaid by 30pct at the end of the day. Same w tech stocks in the year 2000, except you could have overpaid by 90-100pct and lost everything.

Comps can badly detach from underlying intrinsic value for a lot of reasons. There have always been manias. It can happen in sports too.

Those who are wise know when the comps get stupid, and they step away. Or bet against them. The best of the best play it both ways, and take advantage of the mania, but then are smart enough to get out. Most don't.

Using stupidity to justify stupidity can work, but often it does not end well.

Smart GMs figured that out w regard to paying running backs, and then the less smart ones followed, but late and only after they damaged their team by overdrafting and overpaying the running back

Comps are just a tool in the toolkit. There is much more than comps when it comes to smartly determining the value of any asset, including athletes
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We started this conversation as the need to evaluate other offers for Tua to determine his value (your position). I pointed out that there will be no offers because he is under contract and that comps will need to be used (my position). We now seem to have settled on the comp path, but now we are talking about "how" to look at a comp?

Lets just agree that comps are going to be a major factor in determining value and we can leave it up to Grier to ensure he is capable of understanding the market dynamics and what is a good comp vs. what isn't. I feel good that Grier can and will make a good decision.
 
JamesWsenior said:
Mate I don't agree with a lot of your takes on this issue but free speech and all.

Please take a little more time to break your rants into paragraphs. It's much harder for me to chuckle when I have to spend time figuring out where one sentence ends, and the next begins. 😂
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What is worse, run-on sentences or run-on paragraphs? I recall this guy on a Thailand-related forum about 20 years ago that would do both simultaneously. I recall he was from Oz and claimed to be in law enforcement. Oh yeah, he included the e.e cummings trick of all lowercase. Some fellows tried to politely suggest he break things up better, and he would get very defensive. Good times.
 
Bob512 said:
We started this conversation as the need to evaluate other offers for Tua to determine his value (your position). I pointed out that there will be no offers because he is under contract and that comps will need to be used (my position). We now seem to have settled on the comp path, but now we are talking about "how" to look at a comp?

Lets just agree that comps are going to be a major factor in determining value and we can leave it up to Grier to ensure he is capable of understanding the market dynamics and what is a good comp vs. what isn't. I feel good that Grier can and will make a good decision.
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I have not settled on the "comp" path. You are putting words in my mouth.
I have settled on meeting whatever the best offer would be from another team, and not going a dollar higher than that. Granted, no way to know what that number is, it is the GMs job to get there, and that is part of the negotiation.
You seem to believe if Tua was a free agent right now there would be other teams lined up to give him the 5 and 275 based on the "comps" you believe in.
I do not think there would be other teams lined up to do that. I do not think other teams will "comp" Tua to Burrow and Mahomes.
I think Tua's open market value is a fair bit lower than the 5 and $275mm, and all the guarantees and other things that come along with the 5 and $275mm contract.

Side point, I do think the QB deals have become stupid, and self destructive. There is only one guy that has proven he can carry the team with that type of deal, which is Mahomes. The teams handing out these deals, I think some of them are making marketing decisions. They also believe if they don't make that kind of offer, another team will. In Burrow's case, I agree with that assumption, so their hands are tied. They know they can be OK, and entertaining, and are willing to forego winning the SB and are content with having a good product on the field that can make a little noise. I understand why teams are OK with that, from a pure business perspective. Same with GMs and coaches. They keep their jobs in that circumstance. And the owners are pretty happy too. Stadium is full, and fans are not b*tching about them.
 
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phinsforlife said:
I have not settled on the "comp" path. You are putting words in my mouth.
I have settled on the meeting whatever the best offer would be from another team, and not going a dollar higher than that. Granted, no way to know what that number is, it is the GMs job to get there, and that is part of the negotiation.
You seem to believe if tua was a free agent right now there would be other teams lined up to give him the 5 and 275 based on the "comps" you believe in.
I do not think there would be other teams lined up to do that. I do not think other teams will "comp" Tua to Burrow and Mahomes.
I think Tua's open market value is a fair bit lower than the 5 and $275mm, and all the guarantees and other things that come along with the 5 and $275mm contract.

Side point, I do think the QB deals have become stupid, and self destructive. There is only one guy that has proven he can carry the team with that type of deal, which is Mahomes. The teams handing out these deals, I think some of them are making marketing decisions. They know they can be OK, and entertaining, and are willing to forego winning the SB and are content with having a good product on the field that can make a little noise. I understand why teams are OK with that, from a pure business perspective. Same with GMs and coaches. They keep their jobs in that circumstance. And the owners are pretty happy too. Stadium is full, and fans are not b*tching about them.
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I don't believe other teams will comp Tua like Burrow's or Mahomes, nor have I said that. However, Herbert and Hurts, absolutely and are realistic comparisons.

As to your side point, I agree to an extent. The salary pressure for QB's has become problematic. Assuming a $50M deal for Tua, that would represent about 19% of the cap which is not a recipe for success. The sweet spot for SB winners seems to be in the 12% - 13% range of the cap based on the last 15 years. However, if they sign Tua, they will actually reduce his impact in 2024 and likely 2025 to around 9% to 12% range which is extremely reasonable. It is the outlying years that become a problem. As you defer out salary to later years in the contract, you have to keep reworking the contracts or you end up with the Broncos current problem. With the salary cap expected to grow by about $10M a year, I don't see the growth in QB salaries trend changing anytime soon.
 
MrClean said:
What is worse, run-on sentences or run-on paragraphs? I recall this guy on a Thailand-related forum about 20 years ago that would do both simultaneously. I recall he was from Oz and claimed to be in law enforcement. Oh yeah, he included the e.e cummings trick of all lowercase. Some fellows tried to politely suggest he break things up better, and he would get very defensive. Good times.
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@Ozfin ? 😂
 
I think Miami could approach Tua with an EXTENSION that does not touch this year's contract.

For instance. A deal that comes with a roster bonus that guarantees if he is on our roster on week three (or so).

The roster bonus would be (maybe) 40m in cash payable on the first day of new year.

His first year (2025) salary would be 1m.

His second and third years would be guaranteed at 50m each.
 
Feverdream said:
I think Miami could approach Tua with an EXTENSION that does not touch this year's contract.

For instance. A deal that comes with a roster bonus that guarantees if he is on our roster on week three (or so).

The roster bonus would be (maybe) 40m in cash payable on the first day of new year.

His first year (2025) salary would be 1m.

His second and third years would be guaranteed at 50m each.
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Agreed. There are many ways an extension could be structured to reward Tua and keep some CAP flexibility. I think the 50m for years 2-3 would be max for me. I'm hoping 45m would do it, with some incentives for how far we go in the playoffs. Hoping, but not expecting. :)
 
Jamesw said:
Agreed. There are many ways an extension could be structured to reward Tua and keep some CAP flexibility. I think the 50m for years 2-3 would be max for me. I'm hoping 45m would do it, with some incentives for how far we go in the playoffs. Hoping, but not expecting. :)
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This is just guesswork.

This would guarantee Tua 140m plus the 25m from this year... and would tie us to him through 2027.

He'd be set for life... and if he became Brees, instead of Zach Wilson... we'll be thrilled.
 
Bob512 said:
I don't believe other teams will comp Tua like Burrow's or Mahomes, nor have I said that. However, Herbert and Hurts, absolutely and are realistic comparisons.

As to your side point, I agree to an extent. The salary pressure for QB's has become problematic. Assuming a $50M deal for Tua, that would represent about 19% of the cap which is not a recipe for success. The sweet spot for SB winners seems to be in the 12% - 13% range of the cap based on the last 15 years. However, if they sign Tua, they will actually reduce his impact in 2024 and likely 2025 to around 9% to 12% range which is extremely reasonable. It is the outlying years that become a problem. As you defer out salary to later years in the contract, you have to keep reworking the contracts or you end up with the Broncos current problem. With the salary cap expected to grow by about $10M a year, I don't see the growth in QB salaries trend changing anytime soon.
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Guesses on my behalf:
-if Herbert were able to test the market right now, he would still get his current deal
-if Hurts were able to test the market right now, he would not get his current deal (Eagles top ticked him, which given how he looked and the fact that he took them to the SB, makes it understandable that he got the deal he did)
-NFL GM's believe Tua is a tier below Herbert. You and others may think differently. I may think differently. This is not meant to be my comparison of the merits of Tua vs Herbert. My point is I think most NFL GM's believe Herbert is the better QB, for whatever reason (they may over-index to arm strength)
-My view of Herbert is talk to me after this year. The coaching situation in San Diego was such a mess, I don't know how much of the underachievement is on Herbert, versus what they had running the team. I do find it interesting that Tua gets more sh*t from the pundits for quarterbacking the Dolphins to an 11-6 record than Herbert does for leading the Chargers to a 5-12 record. Herbert was also at the helm for the bedwetting against Jacksonville in the playoffs last year
 
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