Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

[YorkshirePhin]

Mike Florio seems to think an extension isn’t coming any time soon…if at all.

Mike Florio thinks?

Thats a surprise to me!

 

[Bob512]

so i disagree:

-first of all i forgot to address your other point about the 5th year option. you seem to position it as a 100% certainty that tua will have a year that will only increase his market value. that is factually incorrect. of course there is a chance he has a year that decreases his market value. he either gets hurt, his performance regresses, or maybe more of the same which is he plays poorly against the better teams, which eventually also degrades his value. it is reasonable to argue about the probabilities of each thing happening. you would probably ascribe a much higher probability to the value enhancing case than i would. fine. but i also warn you that humans tend to be overconfident. i wouldn't go much higher than 60-65% even if I was bullish as you are on tua. a lot can happen. look at what just happened with jalen hurts, daniel jones, herbert, and heck even joe burrow. daniel jones obviously would not get that deal now, burrow probably would, i doubt hurts would, and herbert is a big question mark. there is an old statistics question which is something along the lines of "give me a range for the length of the nile river that you can be 99% confident is correct." to be 99% confident, the answer should be something akin to "between an inch, and the circumfrence of the earth." anyway given where I am on the probabilities, for me the math is make him play out the 5th year option. if tua has the home run year, and proves he is an elite playoff game winning QB that can elevate the team on his shoulders, and we have to pay more for him, i am happy to pay up knowing i have a greater degree of certainty that he is worth it. i put value on that information. i also put value on having the option to pay him alot less if he gets hurt again or does not perform at the level we hope he does. that is my view of the math. i understand you disgaree, which is fine. but again, my point is there are two sides to what can happen to his value this year. it can go up, it can go down. it is decidedly not a one way street.

-when you say value is a function of skill and performance, yes and no. value is a function of other teams view of the players skill and performance. their view may not be the same as your view. these other teams all gave those QBs those deals, because they felt that if they didnt do it, the players would only get more expensive over time, and another team would be willing to hit the price. similar to your view on tua. were they right? lets keep it simple, in the giants case, obviously they were not. nobody is paying their QB for charitable reasons. they are doing it because they believe in the QB, and they think the early deal will be cheaper than waiting the QB out. sometimes they are right, sometimes they are not. the chiefs and bills got it right with allen and mahomes. others clearly made bad bets. what i do know is the view of the rest of the NFL on tua is not nearly as positive as your view. it comes up constantly on finheaven. a national pundit calls tua a "system QB" or "limited and QB #15 in the NFL" and people on finheaven go nuts about it. it is fine to disagree with what the national pundits say. but it is also folly to dismiss what they say. it is data. it is an indicator of how tua is thought of around the NFL. my view is that the rest of the NFL does not put tua in the same category as burrow, mahomes or even herbert. they have him a notch or two below those guys. therefore my belief is there is nothing to force miami's hand to give tua the $55mm deal. if he doesnt get it from us, he wont be getting it from anyone else either. it is like when you buy a house. if it is listed for $100k and you like it, and think it is worth $200k, and the next best offer is $101k, you dont offer the $200k, you offer $102k. and to be honest, we know what miami says about tua, but we dont know what they really think about tua. the good news is, at some point we will find out. i am still of the view something gets done, it will be healthy, but it will not be a top of the market deal

Sigh.....

You have no idea how the rest of the NFL values Tua....zip........you are simply inserting your opinions (and odd ones) and pretending it is a fact. You might take 700 words to say it, but that is all that it is. The only fact you have to work with is the Fins position that they have stated multiple times......and now you imply that they might actually mean something different, which is simply you adjusting your argument to rationalize your thought process. This doesn't fool anyone and is not necessary.

I have news for you. Nobody is making an offer on your house because it isn't listed for sale. If you want to know how much your house might be worth...what do you do? You look at comps. Other houses that have sold in your market. This doesn't mean you have offers...you don't. It is really a poor argument you are making in determining value.

I'm confident the Fins have an idea of what they want to pay, they will make a fair offer and negotiate from there. You are way too overly focused on the annual $$ amount. This is meaningless. It is about guarantee money, bonus and void years. There are a bunch of different ways to get a deal done that allows everyone to feel like they got a good deal.

 

[Bob512]

Mike Florio thinks?

Thats a surprise to me!

Didn't Florio think Mac Jones was the next Brady?

 

[Blake the great]

Please tell me this is a joke….

First of winston had 30 ints the year he lead if you think that’s the same scenario then it’s hilarious how wrong you are.

Second of all if you watched the games he played well enough to win just about every single one of those “big games”. Could he have played better, sure of course however he played well in just about every game and was let down. Should we cut tyreek for not showing up in big games as well? Here’s all of tyreeks miscues those games which lead to about 4 td’s and atleast 4 fg’s taken off the board in those few games. The crazy thing is there’s even more lost points in those games by other wideouts and a called back td or two due to penalties….

First, I never said anything about wanting to get rid or Tua. I agree that Hill didnt step up either in those games. But hes already on a big fat contract and hes an established all pro. That being said I wouldnt be upset if Hill is done in Miami after this season, as explosive as he is, he still has these moments and its drives me insane. plus I think when hes on the field either mcdaniel or Tua gets tunnel vision too much on forcing passes to Tyreek. Anyone know how many of Tua int's this year were intended passes to Hill? that would be interesting to see.

But I still stand by that Tua needs to play better in the bigger games, he wasn't the reason why they loss many of those games but he certainly wasn't blameless either in those games.

 

[Mello Yello]

If Tua hit the open market or if a team traded for Tua, he would get a top 5 QB contract based off last year's statistics.

The debate seems to resolve around whether or not this is true.

I don't think GMs are stupid so I don't try and imagine them doing things I wouldn't. I think they're cautious and always on the lookout to improve their own situation.

Jared Goff had 2 seasons equal to Tua's and then went bust in LA before being traded (along with picks) for another QB. Carson Wentz had 2 seasons equal to Tua's and then went on to bust for multiple teams.

Things like that dampen the market for QBs who aren't necessarily "proven" to be elite come time for the 2nd contract.

I don't think 2 solid seasons is enough to convince any GM that you're a top-of-the-market QB, especially when your customized and QB-friendly offense has been openly exposed in the biggest games.

 

[Mello Yello]

It is also ridiculous to think the Fins shouldn’t pay fair market value ...

Employee makes $100k at Company A

The Employee gets an offer from Company B across the street to transfer at $130k

The Employee takes that offer back to Company A and says, "match this or I'm leaving."

Company A does what?

Company A is going to offer a raise that doesn't quite match the $130k but allows the employee to gain rank, gain income and stay put without the hassle of moving.

You should NEVER have to pay what your competitors pay to keep a current employee in-house. Your competitors pay more because they're trying to convince the employee to undergo a change that in inherently costly & risky.

If you're paying your own employees more than the competitor is willing to pay to steal them away, you're bad at your job.

 

[JamesWsenior]

Employee makes $100k at Company A

The Employee gets an offer from Company B across the street to transfer at $130k

The Employee takes that offer back to Company A and says, "match this or I'm leaving."

Company A does what?

Company A is going to offer a raise that doesn't quite match the $130k but allows the employee to gain rank, gain income and stay put without the hassle of moving.

You should NEVER have to pay what your competitors pay to keep a current employee in-house. Your competitors pay more because they're trying to convince the employee to undergo a change that in inherently costly & risky.

If you're paying your own employees more than the competitor is willing to pay to steal them away, you're bad at your job.

Christian Wilkins would like a word.

 

[Mello Yello]

Since he isn't on the open market, there is no way to accurately say what is his value. That makes it a judgement.

Everything is a judgement. Who's arguing that?

Any Tua debate is going to center around the logic behind peoples' various projections.

I think the debate has centered on what Tua's 2 solid statistical years is worth and how much uncertainty that's actually resolved. I for one feel like he's still exactly who I projected him as coming out of Alabama. His strengths and weaknesses are still pretty much what they were 5-6 years ago.

There are lots of non-elite QBs who aren't at the top-end of the market who've had a couple good statistical years, several have been back-to-back years in the right kind of offense.

As far as I can tell, the debate is about what that level of QB is worth to other NFL teams and whether fans would ever choose to show loyalty to such a QB given the choice.

Matt Ryan's worth in ATL is probably a good topic for discussion. He had a couple good years and probably ought to have a SB ring but that success really wasn't due to Matt Ryan. Shanahan took that success and replicated it. So should ATL have ditched Matt Ryan earlier? Could another solid QB have taken ATL to a Super Bowl under Shanahan's leadership?

 

[Mello Yello]

Christian Wilkins would like a word.

Wilkins left and went to Company B when Company A didn't match the offer or get close enough.

Talk to any hiring manager. You lose employees all the time. The question is often not whether you want to keep someone but whether you've got the money to pay them what the competition will. In our case, we said, "no thanks" to what Wilkins would've cost.

If someone wants to come along and pay Tua like he's the best QB in the NFL by all means let the Dolphins in on that info. Again, I'd love for some of you guys to actually tell us who's in the market for Tua and what they'd give up.

Give me a convincing argument to read. Write it so we can read it.

 

[JamesWsenior]

Lo

Wilkins left and went to Company B when Company A didn't match the offer or get close enough.

Talk to any hiring manager. You lose employees all the time. The question is often not whether you want to keep someone but whether you've got the money to pay them what the competition will. In our case, we said, "no thanks" to what Wilkins would've cost.

If someone wants to come along and pay Tua like he's the best QB in the NFL by all means let the Dolphins in on that info. Again, I'd love for some of you guys to actually tell us who's in the market for Tua and what they'd give up.

Give me a convincing argument to read. Write it so we can read it.

Lol contradictory. One second you say don't match Company B the next second this.

Wilkins loved it here. Team Captain etc. No bloody way we couldn't have matched that offer if we wanted to.

As for paragraph after paragraph, post after post of veiled Tua hate, you finally outed yourself..well done.

 

[Mello Yello]

Please tell me this is a joke….

First of winston had 30 ints the year he lead if you think that’s the same scenario then it’s hilarious how wrong you are.

Second of all if you watched the games he played well enough to win just about every single one of those “big games”. Could he have played better, sure of course however he played well in just about every game and was let down. Should we cut tyreek for not showing up in big games as well? Here’s all of tyreeks miscues those games which lead to about 4 td’s and atleast 4 fg’s taken off the board in those few games. The crazy thing is there’s even more lost points in those games by other wideouts and a called back td or two due to penalties….

I'd say ~60% of those were actual "drops" and the others were anticipatory throws that are sometimes just a little outside the WR's window because they're thrown so early or are already on the WR when he turns his head around. It's the nature of Tua's game that he's going to put a lot of pressure on WRs to be open early and to be ready.

You can't expect high and behind to be caught on a slant for instance. And you can't expect a catch just because the WR got his outstretched fingertips on a slight overthrow. That's just football.


Still, I think Hill presses in some games or when he's on the verge of scoring (as anyone in any sport would) and it's just a thing we have to deal with. You can't sit and cry about drops when the entire passing offense is built to feature a single, special, probably HoF-bound WR. You have to accept his drops because you have no other choice.

Do we blame Tua? No, most certainly not. I've said that I thought he played great against LAC and PHI and looked like "big game Tua" in the early part of the season.

 

[Mello Yello]

Lo

Lol contradictory. One second you say don't match Company B the next second this.

Wilkins loved it here. Team Captain etc. No bloody way we couldn't have matched that offer if we wanted to.

As for paragraph after paragraph, post after post of veiled Tua hate, you finally outed yourself..well done.

James, I'm putting you on ignore so have a good one, man.

Please don't show up just to argue with people or "expose haters."

Grow up and focus on discussing the Miami Dolphins when you're talking to other humans in a forum. Be polite.

You've been disrespectful towards another poster here. Please don't do that in the future.

 

[Mach2]

Everything is a judgement. Who's arguing that?

Any Tua debate is going to center around the logic behind peoples' various projections.

I think the debate has centered on what Tua's 2 solid statistical years is worth and how much uncertainty that's actually resolved. I for one feel like he's still exactly who I projected him as coming out of Alabama. His strengths and weaknesses are still pretty much what they were 5-6 years ago.

There are lots of non-elite QBs who aren't at the top-end of the market who've had a couple good statistical years, several have been back-to-back years in the right kind of offense.

As far as I can tell, the debate is about what that level of QB is worth to other NFL teams and whether fans would ever choose to show loyalty to such a QB given the choice.

Matt Ryan's worth in ATL is probably a good topic for discussion. He had a couple good years and probably ought to have a SB ring but that success really wasn't due to Matt Ryan. Shanahan took that success and replicated it. So should ATL have ditched Matt Ryan earlier? Could another solid QB have taken ATL to a Super Bowl under Shanahan's leadership?

You do realize what type of contract Atlanta gave him?

 

[Bob512]

Employee makes $100k at Company A

The Employee gets an offer from Company B across the street to transfer at $130k

The Employee takes that offer back to Company A and says, "match this or I'm leaving."

Company A does what?

Company A is going to offer a raise that doesn't quite match the $130k but allows the employee to gain rank, gain income and stay put without the hassle of moving.

You should NEVER have to pay what your competitors pay to keep a current employee in-house. Your competitors pay more because they're trying to convince the employee to undergo a change that in inherently costly & risky.

If you're paying your own employees more than the competitor is willing to pay to steal them away, you're bad at your job.

Your scenario assumes the employee takes the offer back to their original employer, which is a 50/50 proposition in the real world. Probably a bit more likely in the NFL granted, but certainly doesn't guarantee predictable behavior.

Also this ......
You should NEVER have to pay what your competitors pay to keep a current employee in-house. Your competitors pay more because they're trying to convince the employee to undergo a change that in inherently costly & risky.
is naive......

The basis of any good employer / employee relationship is to pay the market scale for positions. If I have an employee I'm paying $20 per hour, but every other competitor in town is paying $25 per hour hour for the same job......then I am going to have a lot of turnover. If I simply pay $5 per hour less.....because they are my employees and inhouse and in my mind I have rationalized than an employee will find it uncomfortable to make a change........I'm going to lose a lot more than I win.

Underpaying people is just as bad in my opinion as overpaying them......maybe worse!

Here is a unique idea. How about we pay a fair wage? We don't want to overpay and we don't want to underpay (well, at least I don't) but instead, come up with a number that works for both sides instead of assuming we should low ball because we are the home team.

I don't know what Tua and his agent thinks is fair, or what Grier has in mind.......but both sides will stake out their positions and negotiate from there. I trust Grier here to make a good decision......

 

[Mello Yello]

Your scenario assumes the employee takes the offer back to their original employer, which is a 50/50 proposition in the real world. Probably a bit more likely in the NFL granted, but certainly doesn't guarantee predictable behavior.

Considering the money at stake and ease of getting estimates is the NFL (not to mention that agents are literally hired to perform these tasks), it's assumed/known that Tua and his representation will gauge the interest of all parties expressing even a little interest.

Tua would never hit FA and agree to the first estimated offer without checking what the alternative offer(s) are.

The basis of any good employer / employee relationship is to pay the market scale for positions.

This does not pertain to current employees, otherwise you'd be offering daily raises to match every new job offer that hits the market.

What you're referring to is what happens when you try and attract new talent. That's when you have to be competitive.

When you've got a guy at $20/hr you're not going to bang his door down to pay him double unless he demands it and brings you a competing offer as proof that he's capable of drawing that from someone else at which point you'll offer him a portion of that increase to stay knowing that he's going to incur a cost if he changes jobs. Even driving across the street costs something in gas money. Your bid never has to meet the opposition's.

If I simply pay $5 per hour less.....because they are my employees and inhouse and in my mind I have rationalized than an employee will find it uncomfortable to make a change........I'm going to lose a lot more than I win.

Underpaying people is just as bad in my opinion as overpaying them......maybe worse!

Again, you're conflating a lot of different scenarios and getting very confused.

Just think of this simply:

(1) The Dolphins want Tua at the cheapest rate they can get him.
(2) Competing offers will define the market value.
(3) The Dolphins will never have to completely meet market value because they are a known commodity to Tua.

From Tua's perspective, the Dolphins are a bidder. So please understand the value of known / trusted / preferred bidders versus unknown / outside bidders.

For instance, the Raiders might pay more but switching teams, coaches, etc. is all risky and uncertain. Staying in Miami will have inherent advantages for Tua which are low/no-risk "knowns." This is true in every situation.

Of course, these "knowns" are not always positive factors. A player may hate his team/HC and wish to go elsewhere. This creates a negative attraction leading to the player demanding more to stay with his present team.

Nonetheless, these deltas always exist. Assuming everyone has to pay the same is naive. Think of the most basic example. KC is a much more attractive destination for WRs compared with most other teams. That's true for many reasons. Thus, WRs will have to take less if they want a spot on the Chiefs roster.

We can be virtually certain that Tua has a positive relationship with the HC and offensive structure in Miami thus Miami can come in a bit under market value and still win given they are sure to be a preferred bidder.

Here is a unique idea. How about we pay a fair wage? We don't want to overpay and we don't want to underpay (well, at least I don't) but instead, come up with a number that works for both sides instead of assuming we should low ball because we are the home team.

I don't know what Tua and his agent thinks is fair, or what Grier has in mind.......but both sides will stake out their positions and negotiate from there. I trust Grier here to make a good decision......

Be careful. There are better words than "fair" to use here. We're talking about a negotiation between two parties with conflicting interests. The Dolphins do want to underpay. If Tua offered to play for $10M/yr the Dolphins would immediately sign that contract. Remember, the Dolphins are the buyer here. The lower the price, the better it is for them.