My problem with the whole WR3 thing…

[Mello Yello]

I do not agree that Tua doesn't go through his progressions

He goes through progressions every game. What are you talking about?

 

[Mello Yello]

Playing at Alabama was actually a detriment to Tua because 98% of the time he had clean pockets and no pressure.

I don't think Alabama was a detriment. Are you suggesting he would've "learned" more mobility at another school? I don't think that's really how that works. In college, they exploit what you do. Players don't "learn" a whole lot until they are groomed by QB coaches in the NFL. It's still about innate ability in college.

Go back and watch some highlights. Tua was actually quite frantic in the pocket at Alabama and moved around quite often (even when he didn't need to). He's generally become more refined in the NFL.

Tua doesn't move fast enough to be a running threat at the NFL level. He wasn't even much at the college level beyond running around in the pocket. Sure, he got kind of fat last season but his mobility was lacking before that. His yards-per-carry was always around 3.0 which is pretty bad, even for a QB. Most are 4+ and QBs who can really run are often 5+.

 

[utahphinsfan]

The underneath was WIDE open in several games for Tua to take shots in the 4 to 8 yard range. He just never looked to those reads and tried to push the ball further down field.

The first Buffalo game is a prime example, dudes hanging out underneath for good gains, might as well have done jumping jacks. This wasn't all on Tua however, McDaniel didn't push him to take those reads, it was obvious the push to throw deep quickly was real. This deep, quick attacking offense is the real reason your 3rd and 4th reads aren't getting touches.

Gesicki was a huge liability, dude literally couldn't block and when pressed about it said "no one taught me to block in the NFL". I was a huge Gesicki fan right up until that and then I was like "**** off Mikey, it's the NFL you should know that basic skill by now, bye bye."

The running game benefited from better hand in the dirt guys, Smith will help this. The best dude out there would be a guy like Mark Andrews, dude would kill it in this offense.

Agree about the underneath.

Would it have killed McD to have plays to dump it off to Ingold or Achane?

I'd hope for noticeable difference this season with acquisition of Jonnu and Achane staying healthy.

 

[djphinfan]

Parker’s career year was in 2019 with Fitzpatrick throwing to him.

Williams career year was with Fitzpatrick throwing to him. Williams caught 12 passes on 26 attempts, 146 yards and 1 TD in his career with Tua.

Gesicki’s was also more effective with Fitzpatrick (8 TDs in 20 starts) than with Tua (7 TDs in 34 starts).

And to refer to Bowden as having a career year is just wrong, 28 receptions for 211 yards, 7.5 YPC, no TDs.

Hope you’re right about Ezukanma.

stand corrected, I'll just say all skill players had better years with him rather than when they left.

for bowden he had his only productive year with Tua.

 

[royalshank]

Nice Post OP! My 2 cents, Tua has shown that he can 'read the field', what he hasn't shown is an ability to improvise when his protection breaks down. The animals that they have rushing the passer now days will not be denied for very long. Bolstering the OL makes sense, so does adding a TE that is a threat. Having Achane and Mostert back there who can drag out of the backfield are also useful. The problem as I see it is there's just not enough decent OL to go around, thus it's becoming more of a premium. Our OL last year was solid, not spectacular until Wynn went down, this despite Armstead missing time early. The backups were wholly inadequate. Having a premium 3rd receiver does no good if the QB is staring at the sky from flat on his @$$.

Tua did move and extend in his first couple seasons better than last year when he went on the Krispy Kreme diet to help him withstand all that punishment. By the end of the year he made Jacoby Brissett look fleet of foot.

 

[AMakados10]

Living by and dying by the pass screwed us with Marino in Dec/Jan and McD already making same mistakes

Edge, OL, or CB imo

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

Tua isn't a third or fourth read QB, never has been. He works best with a quick reads and anticipatory throws. Yeah, this isn't a great pass blocking line but McD made the trade for Hill with the idea that he takes the top off any defense and makes Tua a better QB by taking away the need for him to get through progressions and make plays off platform. He doesn't do that well.

Rick is right, the offense suffered most when Hill and.or Waddle missed time last season. The Williams loss was very tough but we got by fine when Hunt and Terron went down. We didn't adapt at all when either of our top two WRs were out. The collection of third and fourth receivers did not provide Tua any security or confidence. We have to get better there. Good GMs can draft for now and the future and I'm waiting for someone to tell me with Hill's issues and the injuries we've had at WR that drafting a WR would be a bad idea. These are the same people who seem capable of having only one draft thought -take any OL regardless of how that player fits the system. That thought is endorsed without a lot of thought.

I'd much rather have a veteran guard like Risner than to overdraft a kid who won't be ready or will struggle in his first year or three. I think there's a real chance that Barton goes earlier along with Fautanu and every other quality OL we could get in round 1. Love some of the guards we could get later but again I'd take Risner over C Haynes, my favorite prospect who has actually played guard. There are too many people in here who think that drafting any first round worthy OL solves our offensive problems. I couldn't disagree more, take the best player available

I will say this; since Tua came into the league our OL has been statistically bottom 5 in the NFL. They have allowed pressure on the QB at a top 3 rate each season. Tua has had to throw the ball as quick as any QB in that time period.

You can make the argument he isn’t a 3-4 read guy. The numbers, however, suggest there has not been a time in his career where our OL held their blocks long enough for him to be that guy.

The whole BPA thing is a moot point when the best players in the draft this year are WR and OL. There probably isn’t going to be a scenario where OL isn’t the “best” player at 21 unless a massive run on guys happens and Barton is gone.

 

[Mello Yello]

Tua did move and extend in his first couple seasons better than last year when he went on the Krispy Kreme diet to help him withstand all that punishment. By the end of the year he made Jacoby Brissett look fleet of foot.

Careful what you ask for. Tua has always been able to move around in the pocket to buy time. He did that just fine under all 3 HCs: Saban, Flores and McDaniel.

He used to run beyond the LoS more under Flores but that was because he was bailing on the play and his passer rating suffered as a result.

To that end, Josh Allen started running and his passer has been in the low-90s for the last 3 years. You really don't want a throwing-QB to be running beyond the LoS more than a small handful of times, especially someone like Tua who isn't very fast.

Extending plays is something Tua has always done to the extent he can. He didn't stop doing that last year aside from throwing the ball away a time or two to protect himself (which we're all for).

 

[Blake the great]

I agree that WR3 should be low priority for us as of right now. I do think McDaniel forces too much to Tyreek and maybe that's on Tua as well. I think McDaniel could absolutely scheme up more plays to get our TE's, RBs'/FB, and WR3 wide open with so much attention on Hill and Waddle. I know Smythe is super athletic but neither is Jake Ferguson, their Combine athletic metrics are similar and they were drafted almost exact same spots of their drafts. The difference is Cowboys involve their TE's. Maybe its the QB, maybe Dak likes looking for his TE and Tua doesn't. but Smythe is reliable pass catcher. I don't remember him dropping a pass, He has no run after the catch ability but neither does jake Ferguson, we just need chunk plays to move the chains outside of Hill and Waddle and at times Smythe was showing he can do that towards the end of the season. We definitely don't involve the other guys like we could and like we should.

 

[The Ghost]

Agree about the underneath.

Would it have killed McD to have plays to dump it off to Ingold or Achane?

I'd hope for noticeable difference this season with acquisition of Jonnu and Achane staying healthy.

I agree, those chain moving plays were few and far between. Ingold got that one nice reception against Baltimore for like 25 yards and they never went back to it. That play was there all year.

It keeps the defense honest too.

 

[Feverdream]

I've been screaming... crying.. begging for a RB who could pass block and catch outlet passes.

Can you imagine how much better our offense would perform if our 3rd down RB could routinely catch a pass for a first down?

 

[utahphinsfan]

I agree, those chain moving plays were few and far between. Ingold got that one nice reception against Baltimore for like 25 yards and they never went back to it. That play was there all year.

It keeps the defense honest too.

I recall something from when Jimmy J was coaching Dallas. Madden would point out frequently that the FB (Daryl Johnston) was always open.

Its not just McD that has overlooked the (painfully) obvious

 

[royalshank]

Careful what you ask for. Tua has always been able to move around in the pocket to buy time. He did that just fine under all 3 HCs: Saban, Flores and McDaniel.

He used to run beyond the LoS more under Flores but that was because he was bailing on the play and his passer rating suffered as a result.

To that end, Josh Allen started running and his passer has been in the low-90s for the last 3 years. You really don't want a throwing-QB to be running beyond the LoS more than a small handful of times, especially someone like Tua who isn't very fast.

Extending plays is something Tua has always done to the extent he can. He didn't stop doing that last year aside from throwing the ball away a time or two to protect himself (which we're all for).

I don’t see him as a runner - he’s too slow. But sometimes there is green for the taking and he hesitates, then goes and 3-4 yards becomes 1-2. Stuff like that. I’m more talking about escaping in the pocket to find a new launch point. He was better all the years prior to last year - which I attribute to the added weight. There were times where interior lineman were going to run him down so he just chucked it away. If he’s a little faster, he can get that second set and throw it.

 

[The Ghost]

I recall something from when Jimmy J was coaching Dallas. Madden would point out frequently that the FB (Daryl Johnston) was always open.

Its not just McD that has overlooked the (painfully) obvious

At the end of the day, that is on the QB more than anyone to make those plays.

I’d rather go 70 yards on 10 plays instead of one 70 yard play……ALL DAY.

 

[Aqua Man]

There seems to be an accepted narrative now that our issue in big games is really the offense’s problem and that this limitation stems from a talent deficiency at “WR3” which is basically taken to mean, 'anyone not named Hill or Waddle.'

I want offer a warning against buying into that too easily because it stands to reason that what people are saying here is that by sinking more resources into the WR position, the Dolphins would automatically generate the offensive production needed to ascend into playing competitive Playoff football.

My suspicion is that it's a bit more tricky than that. It's going to have to do more with X's and O's than simply buying talent.


Understanding the initial problem…

We once blamed our skill positions with good reason. Between ’20 and ’21 the Dolphins lacked elite weapons. At the time, our pass catchers were guys like Parker and Gesicki who ranked at the bottom of the league in terms separation. This was a problem.

Someone once said that Tua was good because he gave guys like Lynn Bowden, Mack Hollins and Mike Gesicki career years. That doesn't really ring as true as just saying, 'the Dolphins sucked because in Miami those guys were considered key starters.'


The 1st fix…

This weakness was first addressed by spending a Top-10 draft pick on a WR. Sure, the Dolphins traded down a few spots*, but they initially sat at #3 and had their pick of literally any non-QB in the draft. Jaylen Waddle was essentially selected as the most preferable option from among a deep WR class because not only was he fast, agile and elusive but he also had a prior relationship with Tua which could be exploited even further.

It’s hard to imagine a team not expecting this investment to turn into their #1 guy. For instance, Ja’Marr Chase, who we essentially let go to the Bengals through our actions, is now their unquestioned #1 and Kyle Pitts (another option available to us) led the Falcons in receiving yards before injuries became an issue for him more recently.

*more on that later


The 2nd fix…

The Dolphins later traded a host of picks (R1, R2, R4, R4 and R6) for another star WR who much like before, was brought in because he was fast, agile and elusive. When Hill & Waddle first took the field together in ’22 they were unanimously seen across media circles as the most dynamic duo in the NFL. Articles were written about the insanity of having both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill together on the same team.


The obvious problem…

Miami traded as many assets as a team could to secure two WRs who could get open. If our complaint today is that these two guys can’t get open that speaks to the strategy itself being foolish. We should therefore hesitate when claims are made that “better WRs” will fix our offensive problem(s).

If on the other hand, Hill & Waddle are indeed separating and getting open we should therefore blame other factors and thus not continually sink resources into “better WRs” aimed at correcting what apparently isn’t a WR problem. Once we fix WR3, what's to stop claims about WR4 needing attention immediately thereafter?


What Miami has invested at WR...

With all that went on in the '21 trades between the Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles not to mention the '22 deal with the Chiefs, it's easy to get confused. Let me summarize it all as succinctly as I can.

In 2021 Miami spent the #3 overall pick to get:

(1) Jaylen Waddle
(2) an extra R3 pick in '22*
(3) an extra R1 pick in '23**

* I won't re-hash the entire Hill trade but you can think of it this way, Hill and Waddle each cost a R1 pick. If you're willing to ignore later rounds, we essentially lost R2, R4 and R4 picks but gained a R3 pick. So on the whole I'd say we netted a loss of roughly ~R2 pick plus us having to pay Tyreek Hill.

** Miami ended up spending that extra '23 R1 pick on Chubb's 2022 year alone. That was part of his 5th year extension which Denver had awarded the year prior and which we got the rights to. He was set to hit FA immediately thereafter and Miami paid him as such when they acquired him. So we basically spent that extra R1 pick we'd earned for 1-year of Bradley Chubb playing for us during which we could privately negotiate with him before he hit FA. Ehhhh, that feels like a lot, doesn't it? That's another discussion.


So you've invested:

R1 pick (Waddle)
R1 pick (Hill)
R2 pick (Hill)
R4 pick (Ezukanma lost to injury)

And meanwhile decided that FAs River Cracraft, Trent Sherfield, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios are insufficient to do the job.

This isn't necessarily "too much" but it's enough to warrant some questions. It's enough to give you pause when someone claims Miami lacks WR talent.


The obvious problem...

Everyone was accepting about the acquisition of Cedrick Wilson who'd produced 600-yds receiving on 60 targets with the Cowboys at 13.5-ypc average the year prior. He looked like a solid contributor and strong depth for Miami. Not surprisingly, Wilson averaged 13.5-ypc last year in Miami just as he had in Dallas, so why all the complaining?

Well, in Dallas he was targeted twice as often. In Miami, his involvement dropped by ~40% as did his production. He yardage fell from 600- to 300-yds. His catches fell from 45 to 22. His scoring went from 6-TDs to just 3. It wasn't an issue of ability as much as involvement.

We can compare Braxton Berrios' 2021 year with the Jets to his 2023 year with the Dolphins and see the exact same thing. He's involved at only a 50% rate in Miami and his production fell by half.

So why are we complaining? It's not that these guys aren't who we thought they were. They're exactly who they were in Dallas and NY. We're just not throwing them the ball and that makes perfect sense when we've invested so many picks and so much money in featuring Hill & Waddle.


On targeting your best weapons:

Here are some of the 2023 teams that dumped targets to prominent pairings:

286 tgts - Raiders - Adams & Meyers
284 tgts - Lions - St. Brown & LaPorta (TE)
282 tgts - Cowboys - Lamb & Ferguson (TE)
275 tgts - Dolphins - Hill & Waddle (down from a league-leading 287 last year w. the duo missing a combined 4 games)
270 tgts - Eagles - Brown & Smith
266 tgts - Buccaneers - Evans & Godwin
255 tgts - Rams - Nakua & Cupp
254 tgts - Colts - Pittman & Downs


It's clear that Miami is near the top in targeting their primary duo but it's not unheard-of. Most good offenses have at least 1 star WR and many either feed a 2nd WR or a star TE like LaPorta in DET, Ferguson in DAL or Hockenson in MIN.

It's also clear that Hill being targeted ~10x per game isn't out of the ordinary for an elite pass catcher. Tons of other top names see roughly the same amount of balls be they Davante Adams, Travis Kelce or Justin Jefferson. If you believe Tyreek is special (which everyone does) there's nothing wrong with his 170 targets (although that would've been ~180 had he not missed a game this year).

Still, he's never actually led the NFL in targets.


Summary...

So what exactly is the problem with WR3 in Miami? Our QB just lead the entire NFL is passing yardage and we want what exactly, more production from WR3?

The obvious question here is why not just achieve that by throwing more towards Cedrick Wilson, River Cracraft or Braxton Berrios who we know can produce more if thrown to? What are the odds we're going to not only draft someone better but also be able to use that player more effectively when we're already leaving food on the table with the guys we have?

Furthermore, we haven't really made a dent in this supposed "problem" even after addressing it last year with multiple new resources being added. There's reason to believe adding more WR talent ain't the fix because this isn't even the problem.

None of those guys we brought in failed us. Quite the contrary, the evidence suggests we failed them. We've acquired them and used them less than what their previous teams did. Even Cracraft (who averages about 1 target per game for us) got about that same amount in SF believe it or not before you ever heard his name.

The last time we "featured" a WR3 was when we threw 51 times to Sherfield in 2022. That was an offense many felt was in some ways better and more balanced than in 2023. But in reality, those Sherfield targets were really just split between Berrios (33) and another 20 going to Wilson Jr last year so not much actually changed.

Keep in mind that Hill got 10 targets per game in '22 and 10.7 in '23 so that wasn't a huge swing and considering the guy was going to 2k, we can all understand the additional 0.7 being added.

And Waddle was about the same per game as well. His targets dipped slightly because of 3 missed games in '23. Mostert didn't change much. Achane entered the picture of course but that should've helped in spreading it around.


What changed?

In short, Gesicki left. While he wasn't the most ideal TE, he was nonetheless a TE worth throwing to. Between he and Smythe the TE position saw 72 targets in '22. That number dropped by almost half last year.

Okay, so we signed Jonnu Smith who showed in TEN, NE and ATL that he's capable of sharing the load and putting up a few hundred yards. However, in an NFL where the top TEs typically see between 100-140 targets (competing for the "WR2" spot), the fact Smythe only attracted 43 (which ranked T30) really tells the tale.

Jonnu Smith got 70 targets last year in ATL (18th best) so he's far from "great" but he's not bad. He's just badly needed.

Notice though that TEs start to become somewhat irrelevant once they're producing <35-yds per game which equates to about the Top-16 or so and that's where Smith sits so he's not exactly a "fix."

View attachment 168628

Obviously Jonnu Smith is a welcome addition but we still need a real stud. If Durham Smythe is our Dawson Knox we need our Dalton Kincaid, someone worthy of the Top-10. FWIW, Durham Smythe ranked 32nd among all TEs with only 23 yards per game. The dude is a weakness and thus so is the position in Miami. He's a big reason we're seen as "not a physical team."

And I seriously doubt he's going to double-up with Jonnu Smith. We're simply going to lean on Smith because he's better.

Was Smith held back in Tennessee? No. In NE? Possibly. Their offense sucks and he split time with Hunter Henry. Was he held back in ATL? Sure. He split time with Kyle Pitts and that hurts. But is he enough to help Miami with the "WR3 problem?"

For me, I suspect Miami will rely on a combination of things including (1) the WR3's they have, (2) an increased role for Achane and (3) Jonnu Smith stepping up into being a starting-caliber guy.


I don't know where this leaves us but I don't see WR being a R1, in fact I see Miami studying the TE a bit more if the talent is there in R2.

I'm on record as saying R1 is going to be OL. I'd be shocked if we went WR higher than R2 and that's only if the right guy falls.

This is a great post. I may disagree with it, but it’s damn good work.

I think as fans (especially during the offseason), we tend to overthink things. No matter how the game changes and evolves, 1 thing is constant: The more talented team almost always wins- especially in the long run.

Hill and Waddle are currently the only 2 WR’s on this roster that can create separation and command help defenders. If one goes down, it gets much easier to defend Miami, and if both go down, it becomes hilariously easy to defend Miami. On the flip side, if you can stick a productive #3 on the field alongside Tyreke and Waddle, it becomes almost impossible to slow Miami down- especially when you factor in our run game.

IMO, #3 WR is still the spot I’m currently worried about the most at this point in the offseason.