The All-Purpose Draft thread....

[GRYPHONK]

I'll ask my friend. I do not have access to the site where he got those rankings.
All, I know about the last 7 regular season games is we averaged 27.3 points per game. For the entire season, it was 29.2.

But you see, that's the point. You can't compare season average to the last 6-7 games because the last 6 games dropped the season average.

For instance, first 11 games, Miami averaged over 430 YPG of offense.

Last 6 games they averaged around 354.

PPG
First 11 games- 30.8
Last 6- 26.1.

Again, there was a huge diferrence between the first 11 weeks or so and the last 6 with regards to the offense.

For instance, another one.

When you look at the sacks allowed. Miami had only 2 the first 4 games. Then 27 I think the next 13 games. They went from .5 per game to over 2 per game.

This with the leagues fastest QB release time

This was not a good pass blocking team last year the 2nd half of the season.

When you play the Panthers/Giants/Commanders etc.... you can get away with 2.1 seconds only of clean pocket time.

But look what happens when you play the Bills/Eagles/Cowboys and Ravens

 

[dolfan91]

But you see, that's the point. You can't compare season average to the last 6-7 games because the last 6 games dropped the season average.

For instance, first 11 games, Miami averaged over 430 YPG of offense.

Last 6 games they averaged around 354.

PPG
First 11 games- 30.8
Last 6- 26.1.

Again, there was a huge diferrence between the first 11 weeks or so and the last 6 with regards to the offense.

For instance, another one.

When you look at the sacks allowed. Miami had only 2 the first 4 games. Then 27 I think the next 13 games. They went from .5 per game to over 2 per game.

This with the leagues fastest QB release time

This was not a good pass blocking team last year the 2nd half of the season.

When you play the Panthers/Giants/Commanders etc.... you can get away with 2.1 seconds only of clean pocket time.

But look what happens when you play the Bills/Eagles/Cowboys and Ravens

Exactly

 

[MrClean]

But you see, that's the point. You can't compare season average to the last 6-7 games because the last 6 games dropped the season average.

For instance, first 11 games, Miami averaged over 430 YPG of offense.

Last 6 games they averaged around 354.

PPG
First 11 games- 30.8
Last 6- 26.1.

Again, there was a huge diferrence between the first 11 weeks or so and the last 6 with regards to the offense.

For instance, another one.

When you look at the sacks allowed. Miami had only 2 the first 4 games. Then 27 I think the next 13 games. They went from .5 per game to over 2 per game.

This with the leagues fastest QB release time

This was not a good pass blocking team last year the 2nd half of the season.

When you play the Panthers/Giants/Commanders etc.... you can get away with 2.1 seconds only of clean pocket time.

But look what happens when you play the Bills/Eagles/Cowboys and Ravens

Something else that seems to be getting glossed over is Hill and Waddle were both at far less than 100% late in the season. Over the entire season, they were only on the field together 40% of the time. I'd estimate it was even less frequent in the last 6-7 games. That is why some folks want to see OBJ signed and Brian Thomas drafted.

 

[dolfan91]

 

[dolfan91]

I love it.

 

[MrClean]

But you see, that's the point. You can't compare season average to the last 6-7 games because the last 6 games dropped the season average.

For instance, first 11 games, Miami averaged over 430 YPG of offense.

Last 6 games they averaged around 354.

PPG
First 11 games- 30.8
Last 6- 26.1.

Again, there was a huge diferrence between the first 11 weeks or so and the last 6 with regards to the offense.

For instance, another one.

When you look at the sacks allowed. Miami had only 2 the first 4 games. Then 27 I think the next 13 games. They went from .5 per game to over 2 per game.

This with the leagues fastest QB release time

This was not a good pass blocking team last year the 2nd half of the season.

When you play the Panthers/Giants/Commanders etc.... you can get away with 2.1 seconds only of clean pocket time.

But look what happens when you play the Bills/Eagles/Cowboys and Ravens

Here is the info you requested:

"For the second half, I used after the bye (Weeks 11-18) as it was a better break point since going earlier has some teams on bye, which affects comparisons on totals.

PBE -- 3rd
Pressure % -- 2nd
Deep Pass Yards -- 1st (tie)
Intermediate Pass Yards -- 4th
Total Passing Yards -- 4th
Blown Block Rate (total) -- 1st
Blown Block rate (pass) -- 3rd
Blown Block Rate (run) -- 4th
YPC -- 12th
Rush TDs -- 7th

So most of them are 1st or second or close to that. The rushing numbers after the bye are affected by Mostert being out for a few games. the passing numbers after the bye are affected some by Waddle missing a few games and Hill missing one. And everything is affected by the fact that the Dolphins played an unusually heavy schedule against top defenses in that stretch -- Jets twice, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, and even the Raiders at that point."

 

[MrClean]

But he is not worth a 1st and anyone thinking so is just fooling themselves...
Well, according to some folks anyway.

 

[Da 'Fins]

View attachment 168897View attachment 168898

I already recounted a rant an NFL OL coach gave me about how "only poor evaluators" make arm length the end all for who can play OT in the NFL. He went on and on about how it was just part of the equation. And only "idiot draftniks" believe that 34" is some "magic number". Those were his words, not mine, but I do agree that it is far from some hard rule.

View attachment 168900

That’s fine but …

A) I’m not and haven’t seen anyone argue that arm length is the “end all” of evaluating players to play OT. You’re responding with a straw man. Or arguing against the air. Now, it is a factor. But just one of several. The shorter one’s arms the more difficult it is to keep the defenders arms from getting into your chest and then he has an advantage. And of the top 15 rated win rate OTs at ESPN (not a perfect stat but useful for individuals) none have arms under 33 1/4. Again, not saying it’s the end all. Just a factor as part of the evaluation.

How many pro bowl OTs in the last decade plus can you name who had arm lengths under 33 inches? (Barton’s are 32.88). And that’s a goal in selecting a player in round 1.

Only one I can recall is Joe Thomas. But exceptions are not the norm. There just aren’t many who are successful at OT in the NFL with arm length under 33 inches. The prototype is 34 plus is all I’m saying. Just like there aren’t many edge rushers with a 1.70+ 10 split.

And …

B) you just completely ignored and never responded to the fact - which was the only real disagreement I had - that you kept saying over and over, in multiple posts, that Armstead was short armed like Barton when, in fact, he is not short armed like Barton. His arm length was 34.08. The two are simply not the same measurables physically. That’s all I’m saying.

Armstead is Uber strong in his upper body, along with his 4.71 speed, with 31 reps. When you watch him he uses his arm strength to perfection.



Unrelated to that there are plenty of smart evaluators who see Barton as an iOL. I do as well. And think he has a chance to be a really good one.

 

[Da 'Fins]

A week away. Right now, if Miami sticks at 21, I think it’s Latu, Verse, or Darius Robinson for Grier. I suspect he and Weaver are salivating over Robinson. I also think Detroit will be hoping for Darius.

Outside shot it could be Fautanu or Fuaga if somehow one made it there. But highly unlikely they will, imo. Similarly, I could also see Bowers if he dropped but also see slim chance of that. Slimmer than the slim reaper!

I also think WR has to be a big factor in round 2. Partly depending on what they do at 21.

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

A week away. Right now, if Miami sticks at 21, I think it’s Latu, Verse, or Darius Robinson for Grier. I suspect he and Weaver are salivating over Robinson. I also think Detroit will be hoping for Darius.

Outside shot it could be Fautanu or Fuaga if somehow one made it there. But highly unlikely they will, imo. Similarly, I could also see Bowers if he dropped but also see slim chance of that. Slimmer than the slim reaper!

I also think WR has to be a big factor in round 2. Partly depending on what they do at 21.

From what I hearing brother Verse will most likely be gone by 21. Also could be in a good spot at 21 with talent sliding down if indeed 6 QB's go in the first round. Or perhaps a team wants to trade up for one of the QB's.

 

[dolfan91]

If the Giants don't take a qb at #6, they could look to trade back up into the 1st round to get a QB. Could they be a match?

Hyperthetically if one of the rumored trade scenarios involving Miami trading back from #21, to either #25, #30 or #31; does happen, Miami could than once again trade back with the Giants, who would come up for a QB.

 

[GRYPHONK]

Here is the info you requested:

"For the second half, I used after the bye (Weeks 11-18) as it was a better break point since going earlier has some teams on bye, which affects comparisons on totals.

PBE -- 3rd
Pressure % -- 2nd
Deep Pass Yards -- 1st (tie)
Intermediate Pass Yards -- 4th
Total Passing Yards -- 4th
Blown Block Rate (total) -- 1st
Blown Block rate (pass) -- 3rd
Blown Block Rate (run) -- 4th
YPC -- 12th
Rush TDs -- 7th

So most of them are 1st or second or close to that. The rushing numbers after the bye are affected by Mostert being out for a few games. the passing numbers after the bye are affected some by Waddle missing a few games and Hill missing one. And everything is affected by the fact that the Dolphins played an unusually heavy schedule against top defenses in that stretch -- Jets twice, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, and even the Raiders at that point."

Thanks for this information.

It's interesting. Because there's the eye test, then these actual numbers which are contradictory.

As well as some stats or metrics appear to contradict each other.

I'm not saying you are contradicting.

What I mean is we were 3rd in blown pass block rate. Yet we had 2.1 clean pocket time. Tua had a 2.28 release time. That implies the pass blocking wasn't able to block,cleanly long enough for the leagues fastest QB, yet they were 3rd on pass block blown rate. While at the same time 31st in pass block win rate.

Some of these just don't make sense or add up.

But I mean, stats are stats. Numbers don't lie.

I'm just trying to interpret them lol.

But thanks for providing this info. Good talk

 

[Da 'Fins]

Interesting that in none of those clips did Newton go against Fashanu. Seems a little careless from Driscoll. I wonder how much they actually matched up?

That’s not to slight Newton in any way- he has a lot of talent. His quickness will make some plays.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I think you already know which 1st round OTs played primarily LT in college.

The only one who is projected to maybe available is Barton, who I like a lot, but he projects as a Guard.

 

[Da 'Fins]

From what I hearing brother Verse will most likely be gone by 21. Also could be in a good spot at 21 with talent sliding down if indeed 6 QB's go in the first round. Or perhaps a team wants to trade up for one of the QB's.

For sure. I should have observed that I don’t expect any of Verse, Latu, Fautanu, or Fuaga to make it to 21. Just saying I suspect those are probably high on Grier’s list. I suspect they like Darius Robinson a lot. I could also see Newton or DeJean go at 21. I can see them wanting a young safety - for a 3 safety look and to pair with Holland. Especially given Poyer’s injury history and age. But also in case Holland makes it to free agency. One has to wonder if some Dolphin players are influenced by the Wilkins success in betting on himself and are going to wait for free agency.

Grier is hard to figure out at times but those are my suspicions.