Trade down with #21 | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Trade down with #21

Don’t even consider making any deal until we’re on the clock. At that point, you assess the board and your board, and see how they fit.

If one of your top rated guy is still on the board, then no. If more than one or still there, you consider loving back just enough to guarantee one of them, 1-2 spots, and hopefully getting a 4th for your troubles.

If none of your 1st round rated guys are there, then yeah, I’d consider a mild trade back to pick up a 3rd.
 
Music to my ears.

I am all for trading back with this draft class. Plenty of starters will be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I am just having a tough time coming up with a team that would trade up for a QB. Vikings and Raiders will have already passed on someone at that point, so will they come up to 21? I know the Vikes are at 23 already, so i doubt they pass on the QB they want at 11 thinking they'll get him later. Will the Raiders pass at 15 and then move back up? Doubtful.

The Giants are intriguing but their next pick, after 6, is 47th so thats a steep drop. That'll take a 2025 first along with pick 47, to come up to 21 (and likely give them back a 3rd rounder). I would do that deal in a heartbeat. And its possible the current FO (and Daboll) might be desperate to show they have a plan for the future or everyone could be out after 2024.

Lions coming up to 21 (from 29) to grab a corner is a strong possibility.

I don't see that sleeper team coming up for a QB though. Even the Saints as an outside the box team wouldn't make sense as they would've passed in the first round too.
 
Jssanto said:
Just saw the article Grier said teams were calling about us giving up pick 21.
What player available then would they want?
If we go OL, especially G/C, I would trade back. If we want a true tackle, I probably would not.
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it all depends as to how far back we'd trade and who's still on the board at the time of the trade
 
I agree with the notion of not finalizing anything until we are on the clock. However, moving a few spots and picking up a 3rd or 4th is extremely attractive. But if I have a stud OL/WR/Edge that falls to me at 21, I'm staying put.

It is great to have options......and we certainly do.
 
I would HATE to see the Dolphins trade out of the first round just to get an additional pick in the 3rd or 4th round.
Historically 50% of first round picks develop into solid starters in the NFL.

Only 33% of 2nd round picks eventually become solid starters and the percentage goes down to 16% for 3rd round picks and 8% for 4th round picks.

I would much rather take a chance on drafting one first round pick than two second round picks or even 2 second round picks and a third round pick.

The Dolphins need a player with their first pick who can come in and be a starter from day one and to me, that would be a first round pick based on historical averages.
 
The Ghost said:
Music to my ears.

I am all for trading back with this draft class. Plenty of starters will be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I am just having a tough time coming up with a team that would trade up for a QB. Vikings and Raiders will have already passed on someone at that point, so will they come up to 21? I know the Vikes are at 23 already, so i doubt they pass on the QB they want at 11 thinking they'll get him later. Will the Raiders pass at 15 and then move back up? Doubtful.

The Giants are intriguing but their next pick, after 6, is 47th so thats a steep drop. That'll take a 2025 first along with pick 47, to come up to 21 (and likely give them back a 3rd rounder). I would do that deal in a heartbeat. And its possible the current FO (and Daboll) might be desperate to show they have a plan for the future or everyone could be out after 2024.

Lions coming up to 21 (from 29) to grab a corner is a strong possibility.

I don't see that sleeper team coming up for a QB though. Even the Saints as an outside the box team wouldn't make sense as they would've passed in the first round too.
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I'm leaning towards vikings trading w/ne or chargers to get their guy
 
madridfinfan said:
Don’t even consider making any deal until we’re on the clock. At that point, you assess the board and your board, and see how they fit.

If one of your top rated guy is still on the board, then no. If more than one or still there, you consider loving back just enough to guarantee one of them, 1-2 spots, and hopefully getting a 4th for your troubles.

If none of your 1st round rated guys are there, then yeah, I’d consider a mild trade back to pick up a 3rd.
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I agree, JJ made the mistake of trading down before the draft back in 1998. If we had stayed put Randy Moss would have fallen into our lap.
 
So we have interest in what?
Top 6-7 ol(maybe consider Guyton?),
Bowers(think cincy might prefer him, #18, over Gesicki?),
Top 4 wr(I doubt they will pick Thomas and more likely trade to someone who wants him) and I really hope they don't take Worthy here,
Top 4-5 dbs(label them how ya like),
Top 3 edge(Robinson is 4th and looks likely to go rd 2),
Neither Byron or Newton are options to Grier apparently
That's 17-19 and then add 3-4 qb's and were solid with any of these that slide to us.
If anyone should have trade interest.. I'm positive we can still get great value in 22-32, especially since there is always a few 'wtf are they thinking picks'..
Morgan, Mims(project or not), Suam still worthy of a 1st if get near the turn
Few options at wr too

The chance to hit on another player via a trade down is what good gm's should do when the value is so deep in a draft(Tunsil situation happening again is fools gold)
 
Jssanto said:
Just saw the article Grier said teams were calling about us giving up pick 21.
What player available then would they want?
If we go OL, especially G/C, I would trade back. If we want a true tackle, I probably would not.
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Just because he’s calling doesn’t mean he’s interested or that he has a trade partner. He’s just doing his due diligence. With as few picks that we have, we need two starters from our first two picks. Period, EOS. Highly doubt we find that in a trade down.
 
Bob512 said:
I agree with the notion of not finalizing anything until we are on the clock. However, moving a few spots and picking up a 3rd or 4th is extremely attractive. But if I have a stud OL/WR/Edge that falls to me at 21, I'm staying put.

It is great to have options......and we certainly do.
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As I have asked many times over the years, how well has trading down worked out historically for the MD?
 
dolphinheel said:
Just because he’s calling doesn’t mean he’s interested or that he has a trade partner. He’s just doing his due diligence. With as few picks that we have, we need two starters from our first two picks. Period, EOS. Highly doubt we find that in a trade down.
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Jevon Holland and Robert Hunt were early 2nd round picks. Holland is a better pro than the 11 players taken before him and just about every player between his selection and Phillips at 18.

There were as many pro bowlers drafted in the 2nd round in 2020 when Hunt was drafted, that were drafted in the first round, minus the 3 QB's taken in the top 5. And that's not including a bunch of a quality players like Tee Higgins, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugar and Michael Pittman Jr. drafted in the second round who haven't qualified as "pro bowlers" yet.

The 21st pick in 2020 was Jalen Raegor. Who went ahead of Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr and Tee Higgins. After the top 15-20 picks, its more about the evaluator than anything. 20-35 aren't so different in terms of potential and bust factor.
 
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So...
If Brian Thomas. Jr is still there at 21 then I would be hard pressed to pass him up.
But.. if he is not then we should trade out of the pick and pick up at least a third round and maybe a fourth-round pick in addition to the extra second round pick we would acquire.
Then, I would target WR Xavier Legette, and C Zach Frazier and OT Patrick Paul with the additional picks.
I am telling you that I believe Xavier Legette will be the one player that will definitely out-play his draft position in this year's draft.
 
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