Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

[GatorFin73]

Typically, they usually get done the year prior, though. IDK if ppl are consciously ignoring that, or they aren't aware.

They do for several of the reasons I stated, security for the player and the team gets their guy under contract, relatively cheap in the early years of the deal while not letting that player get so close to free agency and be up against the market and/or potentially having to use the franchise tag which wouldn't be cheap at the QB position. And to be fair I do think this is what will happen with Tua come August I'm just pointing out it's not absolutely necessary particularly depending on what the other side is demanding in negotiations. There is certainly a world or set of circumstances where letting Tua play his final year of this current contract ends up much better for the club than signing him now. The risk of serious injury moves over from the player to the club once you sign this deal so for that additional risk the club should get some kind of "team friendly" deal to ink it now.

 

[phinsforlife]

That was so not the context in which the comment was made.

It doesn't matter who the player is. If it's a situation where the guy wants a huge contract, assuming that's why he and the current team can't work out a deal, the trading team would have to be willing, and probably already worked out, a contract acceptable to the player. Now not only is the trading team giving a big $ commitment, they also have to throw in draft capital. That's a steep price if that draft capital includes high picks.

teams always seem willing to do this for what they view as tier 1 QBs. look at the deals for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, etc. dolphins did it for Bradley Chubb, different position, same idea. significant draft capital and dollars. these type of deals go down all of the time. anyway the main point was, what the dolphins pay tua should not be that much more than they have to pay tua to keep him. what they have to pay tua to keep him is a function of his market value. if the dolphins believe there are 2 or 3 teams lined up to pay him $55mm per year, that is the number they have to hit. if the dolphins believe the market for tua is a lower number, they should not be too far from that number. that is the negotiation, which i suspect, but cannot prove, is going on.

 

[phinsforlife]

Miami should never pay above market value for Tua. Miami is always in a position of leverage and should therefore be able to re-sign Tua at a bargain price (even if just marginally).

Miami is where Tua and his family presently live and the Miami Dolphins currently provide Tua with the most likely pathway to on-field success. Therefore, it's incumbent on other teams to exceed Miami's offer by a considerable-enough margin that it would change Tua's mind.

Miami shouldn't even have to meet market value let alone exceed it. In that scenario, they're just doing Tua favors and from a business perspective, that's criminal.

agree. like i said not the job of the team to be the red cross. job is to retain the player at the most attractive terms possible, as long as they believe in the player

 

[Mello Yello]

I think it's common knowledge that these 2nd contract QB deals typically get done late in the offseason as several posters have noted in this thread so the expectation should be a late summer/pre-camp deal timing.

That said both sides have leverage and there are pro's and con's for each side to either ink a deal now or play out the 5th year under contract. For Tua, even a "team friendly" deal, however one quantifies that, will be life changing money and security. Or he could roll the dice on health/performance and if he puts up a strong year in '24 he would be set to make even more next off-season. If I'm putting myself in his shoes I'm trying to get the best deal I can now but I'm highly motivated to get a deal done for that security no matter what happens going forward.

For the team, you need that "team friendly" deal IMO. Doing a deal now will free up some cap space for '24 but as he is under contract for only $23MM this year, it really isn't all that much in the scheme of things. However those savings and having him wrapped up under a workable contract for the next several years is valuable. You are though then at risk to a serious injury or the reappearance of concussion issues. If we can't get a "team friendly" deal, however the FO interprets that, then letting him play under his current contract provides insurance against injury, poor performance or both in '24. Then even if you did resign him next offseason it's likely an even more "team friendly" deal with year 1 and 2 (the lowest cap hits) coming in '25 and '26 instead of doing it now and those low hits coming in '24 and '25 with a big jump in '26. The risk of course is he balls out and signing him next year is that much more expensive but to me that's actually a good problem to have.

I'd rather deal with the downside of Tua playing great and being worth more next offseason then signing him to big money now and a serious injury or poor play relegating the MD to the abyss for several years as they try to get out of the contract.

So both sides have leverage and options, I think all signs are pointing to a deal getting done prior to camp but at that proverbial "team friendly" level. It makes sense for both sides. I don't think the MD should be beholden to Burrow, Lamar, Hurt's contracts as those guys have won playoff games, gone to SB's and won MVP's. They also weren't contemplating retirement a year ago. It all comes down to how one defines "team friendly" but think the MD should insist on something that qualifies as such but also provides Tua big bucks and years of security. I would be disappointed in the team if they just rolled out the next highest contract type of deal, have to utilize the leverage at hand to put the club in the best position possible going forward.

100%

Knowing that Tyreek is only here for another 1-2 years and that Waddle can be held for up to 2 years, it doesn't seem like Miami should be in any rush to re-sign Tua now.

IMHO it seems better to wait and see how 2024 turns out. If disaster strikes and Tua gets hurts or plays poorly you're going to instantly regret the contract while OTOH you have him in '24 under the 5th year option and potentially in '25 under a franchise tag if it came to it.

And to your point about "good problems to have," if Tua does ball out in '24, you'll be ecstatic given the uncertainty resolved itself. You can then sign him before the '25 season and get the "cheap" years in '25 and '26 when the team has another real window with 1-yr of Hill & Waddle and another with Waddle + someone else.

I see no advantage to signing Tua now beyond helping boost his public image.

Honestly, I don't know what Miami's game plan is here. There's a part of me that is starting to think that Ross/Grier actually believe Tua is special but that doesn't jive with what I think Ross' real perception is that these players should be given a short leash / window to prove themselves and replaced sooner rather than later when they're not proving to be winners.

I think Ross was interested in trading up for Burrow. I think Ross was interested in Watson when Houston wanted to deal him. I think Ross would've been happy to get Brady when he was talking to teams.

I just don't think Ross is loyal to any player. To that end, I more or less agree. Maybe that's my projecting though. I wouldn't be loyal to players just because they were sympathetic figures. Heck, I don't think Tua even is that sympathetic figure which is probably a key difference in how the "pro-Tua" people and the more "meh" crowd tends to think.

 

[Mach2]

teams always seem willing to do this for what they view as tier 1 QBs. look at the deals for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, etc. dolphins did it for Bradley Chubb, different position, same idea. significant draft capital and dollars. these type of deals go down all of the time. anyway the main point was, what the dolphins pay tua should not be that much more than they have to pay tua to keep him. what they have to pay tua to keep him is a function of his market value. if the dolphins believe there are 2 or 3 teams lined up to pay him $55mm per year, that is the number they have to hit. if the dolphins believe the market for tua is a lower number, they should not be too far from that number. that is the negotiation, which i suspect, but cannot prove, is going on.

We're any of those guys "tag and trade"?

 

[Mello Yello]

I wonder what's wrong with just letting Tua hit FA so Miami can determine what the next highest bidder's price actually is and then just match that deal knowing Tua will almost certainly prefer to come back to McDaniel's Tua-centric offense.

I don't personally think there is much of a market for Tua so I'd let him play '24 out. If he busts, we can negotiate from there or even move on. If he has an okay year, I'd let him go prove there is a market and show me what that market actually is.

At that point, I can make the most informed decision with the leverage of knowing Tua is always going to pick Miami & McDaniel over some unknown at the same price. And hey, if someone does offer him the farm, so be it and good for him if he takes it.

 

[JamesWsenior]

I wonder what's wrong with just letting Tua hit FA so Miami can determine what the next highest bidder's price actually is and then just match that deal knowing Tua will almost certainly prefer to come back to McDaniel's Tua-centric offense.

I don't personally think there is much of a market for Tua so I'd let him play '24 out. If he busts, we can negotiate from there or even move on. If he has an okay year, I'd let him go prove there is a market and show me what that market actually is.

At that point, I can make the most informed decision with the leverage of knowing Tua is always going to pick Miami & McDaniel over some unknown. And hey, if someone does offer him the farm, so be it.

Not sure I would agree.

What offense in the league is not QB centric? Surely if he went to Denver he would be the centerpiece. **** if he went to the Pats he probably gets 2.5 seconds to throw. Trading for Hill happens even if Beck was starting at QB.

Let him test the market is nice in theory until somebody breaks the bank in desperation. Then where are we a year from now? Drafting 20+ in round one. Might as well get rid of Ramsey, Hill, Holland, JP now and accumulate 20 picks for 2025 and beyond. For every Stroud, there is a garbage heap of Lances, Wilsons and Jones.

Luckily I believe a multi year extension awaits.

 

[Mach2]

In the instances we have seen this occur in the past, the team getting the player already has a contract agreement worked out with the player prior to the trade being done. It is likely the most expensive way to obtain talent, and it does happen....but not the often.

I also find it a bit interesting that people think there is no interest or market for Tua. If inquiries were or are made, it would be discreet for a variety of reasons and you wouldn't know about it. The man is under contract, no team in that situation is going to share that info. People just seem to assume whatever fits their narrative.......

Not only is it very rare overall, I can't think of any that would be comparable to tag and trade of a guy in line for a top 5 contract, regardless of position.

Usually when they do happen, it's because there is a large amount of animosity between player and team, more than anything else.

 

[Mello Yello]

Not sure I would agree.

What offense in the league is not QB centric? Surely if he went to Denver he would be the centerpiece. **** if he went to the Pats he probably gets 2.5 seconds to throw. Trading for Hill happens even if Beck was starting at QB.

Let him test the market is nice in theory until somebody breaks the bank in desperation. Then where are we a year from now? Drafting 20+ in round one. Might as well get rid of Ramsey, Hill, Holland, JP now and accumulate 20 picks for 2025 and beyond. For every Stroud, there is a garbage heap of Lances, Wilsons and Jones.

Luckily I believe a multi year extension awaits.

You obviously think there's a market out there for what history has shown to be a small, not-that-mobile, injury-risk QB with a medium-at-best arm who in the right circumstances can pad stats against Carolina but who has yet to do anything on the national stage of significance since January of 2018.

You think that market exists, fine, but it's on you to show where and why.

You take your time going in-depth to provide me with a convincing case as to what NFL teams constitute that market and I'll be happy to read every word of it.

You mentioned Denver and NE...what do you honestly think they'll offer you for Tua knowing he's on the hook for a big contract in 3...2...1...

How many teams are honestly lining up for that? If he was still in year-2, sure. But now? Why? What are you paying for? That's like us giving Denver a R1 pick for Bradley Chubb's 5th year and then throwing big money at him before he hit FA. We doubly-paid. It was impulsive and kind of dumb but we were in win-now mode. Teams that are rebuilding and need a QB like Tua are not in win-now mode. They're not going to throw you a R1 pick like it's nothing. They'll take him if he's given at a bargain, nothing more.

 

[MrChadRico]

Update on Tua's Contract Extension Talks

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN provided an update on the contract extension talks between the Miami Dolphins and Tua.

dolphinstalk.com

Grier NOT willing to give Herbert/Burrow money to Tua.

 

[phinsforlife]

We're any of those guys "tag and trade"?

no, but i was making a different point.
let me ask the question a different way. make believe tua was a free agent going into this offseason. well known in advance, so teams could plan around it. no draft compensation required for tua, just the money.
what is the best offer from another team that you think tua would get? years, dollars, and guaranteed dollars/outs?
the question becomes not what we in miami think of him. it is what value does the rest of the nfl put on him? that is the market.
my view is the dolphins should pay him exactly that number. it is a good deal for tua too. no taxes, doesn't have to move, is in a place he knows, etc.
the dolphins, meeting market, is actually the best offer for tua, and is something he should take.
obviously, that seems to be part of the debate.
my view is the open market value for tua is not the 5 and $55mm per year that is being thrown around by some.

 

[phinsforlife]

Update on Tua's Contract Extension Talks

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN provided an update on the contract extension talks between the Miami Dolphins and Tua.

dolphinstalk.com

Grier NOT willing to give Herbert/Burrow money to Tua.

interesting article. i am not sure i agree with this sentence excerpted below and the notion that tua has all the leverage. it goes to the point just raised by myself, and @Mello Yello. what is tua's market value? if the dolphins don't pay him, what is the best deal he is going to find? and will the situation be better or worse than miami? personally i think the dolphins have a fair bit of leverage, and they should use it, and not just cave to a top of the market deal. again, their job is not to be the red cross. having said all of that, it does seem the dolphins are pushing back on tua and his camp, which surprises me. i thought grier would instantly cave to whatever they wanted.

"Tua has all of the leverage in this negotiation, and I think his agents know that and will use that to their advantage."

 

[TheMageGandalf]

Stop with the tag n trade. When does that ever happen in situations like this.

Is it possible? Sure, but it's so unlikely one surely can't reasonably speculate that it is a viable option. The reasons have been explained many times.

Even if it did, what could you expect as a return?

I've no doubt they will sign him. But let's imagine that scenario did happen...I'd say Grier wouldn't accept any less than what he received for Tunsil....or QB wise...what Cleveland traded for Watson

 

[GatorFin73]

interesting article. i am not sure i agree with this sentence excerpted below and the notion that tua has all the leverage. it goes to the point just raised by myself, and @Mello Yello. what is tua's market value? if the dolphins don't pay him, what is the best deal he is going to find? and will the situation be better or worse than miami? personally i think the dolphins have a fair bit of leverage, and they should use it, and not just cave to a top of the market deal. again, their job is not to be the red cross. having said all of that, it does seem the dolphins are pushing back on tua and his camp, which surprises me. i thought grier would instantly cave to whatever they wanted.

"Tua has all of the leverage in this negotiation, and I think his agents know that and will use that to their advantage."

Tua certainly does not have all the leverage. Players are generally very leery of playing on the final year of a deal due to the market for their services plummeting if they suffer an injury that year which happens to a great number of players at all positions each and every year. The security of being signed for several years with $100+ million in guaranteed money is hard to turn a blind eye at.

 

[JamesWsenior]

You obviously think there's a market out there for what history has shown to be a small, not-that-mobile, injury-risk QB with a medium-at-best arm who in the right circumstances can pad stats against Carolina but who has yet to do anything on the national stage of significance since January of 2018.

You think that market exists, fine, but it's on you to show where and why.

You take your time going in-depth to provide me with a convincing case as to what NFL teams constitute that market and I'll be happy to read every word of it.

You mentioned Denver and NE...what do you honestly think they'll offer you for Tua knowing he's on the hook for a big contract in 3...2...1...

How many teams are honestly lining up for that? If he was still in year-2, sure. But now? Why? What are you paying for? That's like us giving Denver a R1 pick for Bradley Chubb's 5th year and then throwing big money at him before he hit FA. We doubly-paid. It was impulsive and kind of dumb but we were in win-now mode. Teams that are rebuilding and need a QB like Tua are not in win-now mode. They're not going to throw you a R1 pick like it's nothing. They'll take him if he's given at a bargain, nothing more.

It's not on me to show why. **** I got about 40 others things far more important to do than that lol

Suffice to say if Grier and Co let him play it out and test the market as you would, you all would be fired