Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

[MrChadRico]

The debate seems to resolve around whether or not this is true.

I don't think GMs are stupid so I don't try and imagine them doing things I wouldn't. I think they're cautious and always on the lookout to improve their own situation.

Jared Goff had 2 seasons equal to Tua's and then went bust in LA before being traded (along with picks) for another QB. Carson Wentz had 2 seasons equal to Tua's and then went on to bust for multiple teams.

Things like that dampen the market for QBs who aren't necessarily "proven" to be elite come time for the 2nd contract.

I don't think 2 solid seasons is enough to convince any GM that you're a top-of-the-market QB, especially when your customized and QB-friendly offense has been openly exposed in the biggest games.

I donno man, I just look at it as simple as possible.

If he hit the market today, is any team desperate/willing to make last years passing leader a top 5 paid QB. I think yes, I think the Raiders would, probably the Vikings too.

Tua also fits SF offense so well, they might be a dark horse for him too.

I'm not arguing he gets the biggest contract, I'm saying top 5. To get into the top 5 highest paid QBs, Tua needs 5yrs/ 230,500,001 or 46.1 million per year.

99% chance a team pays him that if he was a FA right now.

 

[phinsforlife]

Sigh.....

You have no idea how the rest of the NFL values Tua....zip........you are simply inserting your opinions (and odd ones) and pretending it is a fact. You might take 700 words to say it, but that is all that it is. The only fact you have to work with is the Fins position that they have stated multiple times......and now you imply that they might actually mean something different, which is simply you adjusting your argument to rationalize your thought process. This doesn't fool anyone and is not necessary.

I have news for you. Nobody is making an offer on your house because it isn't listed for sale. If you want to know how much your house might be worth...what do you do? You look at comps. Other houses that have sold in your market. This doesn't mean you have offers...you don't. It is really a poor argument you are making in determining value.

I'm confident the Fins have an idea of what they want to pay, they will make a fair offer and negotiate from there. You are way too overly focused on the annual $$ amount. This is meaningless. It is about guarantee money, bonus and void years. There are a bunch of different ways to get a deal done that allows everyone to feel like they got a good deal.

nope.....i am thinking about guaranteed money. doesnt matter if a deal is announced at 5 and 275 if only $80mm is guaranteed. i would think about that as a 2 year, $80mm deal, $40mm per year. not that i expect this is the deal that gets done. but when a deal is announced, that is sort of the way to compare it to the other QB deals. it wont be hard to do, there will be enough detail that is released to compare what tua got to burrow, herbert and hurts, which are the best compares at this point.

when looking at comps when buying a house, you don't look at every home in the neighborhood. you look at similar homes. similar size, quality, land, etc. does the rest of the nfl view tua as joe burrow, or a different home? you seem to know somehow. i am not so certain. like i said, overconfidence is a human condition.

 

[phinsforlife]

Lo

Lol contradictory. One second you say don't match Company B the next second this.

Wilkins loved it here. Team Captain etc. No bloody way we couldn't have matched that offer if we wanted to.

As for paragraph after paragraph, post after post of veiled Tua hate, you finally outed yourself..well done.

What is this "As for paragraph after paragraph, post after post of veiled Tua hate, you finally outed yourself..well done." Now we have the Tua thought police. This is the minority report thread. Please do not have me arrested for a future crime. I hope they do not have this technology in Thailand!

 

[Mello Yello]

I donno man, I just look at it as simple as possible.

If he hit the market today, is any team desperate/willing to make last years passing leader a top 5 paid QB. I think yes, I think the Raiders would, probably the Vikings too.

Tua also fits SF offense so well, they might be a dark horse for him too.

I'm not arguing he gets the biggest contract, I'm saying top 5. To get into the top 5 highest paid QBs, Tua needs 5yrs/ 230,500,001 or 46.1 million per year.

99% chance a team pays him that if he was a FA right now.

Well, every team is in a different situation.

You may be right about some other team offering him something. Personally, I think the draft is really where teams look these days for long-term solutions. The only FA QBs that seem to be popular are those with Playoff wins under their belt. The rest are hotly-contested. Were they good signings or bad?

Cousins was drafted in '12 and didn't win a Playoff game until '19 and has an overall Playoff record of 1-4.

Herbert's early deal has been questioned but again, it was signed after he stayed healthy and posted several above-average statistical seasons.

Minnesota is an interesting discussion because they play in a division with 2 Domes and at least 1 bad/rebuilding team. There absolutely could be interest there, not to mention Tua looks a lot more "elite" when compared to the NFC's top QBs.

Still, I would go see what Minnesota would trade for him. You could reach out to Minnesota about a trade and use that to gauge their actual interest. If they offered a R4 pick you'd know they weren't really in the market to throw him a big deal. If they offered a R1 pick, you'd assume they would pursue him if he were to hit FA.

 

[Bob512]

Considering the money at stake and ease of getting estimates is the NFL (not to mention that agents are literally hired to perform these tasks), it's assumed/known that Tua and his representation will gauge the interest of all parties expressing even a little interest.

Tua would never hit FA and agree to the first estimated offer without checking what the alternative offer(s) are.



This does not pertain to current employees, otherwise you'd be offering daily raises to match every new job offer that hits the market.

What you're referring to is what happens when you try and attract new talent. That's when you have to be competitive.

When you've got a guy at $20/hr you're not going to bang his door down to pay him double unless he demands it and brings you a competing offer as proof that he's capable of drawing that from someone else at which point you'll offer him a portion of that increase to stay knowing that he's going to incur a cost if he changes jobs. Even driving across the street costs something in gas money. Your bid never has to meet the opposition's.



Again, you're conflating a lot of different scenarios and getting very confused.

Just think of this simply:

(1) The Dolphins want Tua at the cheapest rate they can get him.
(2) Competing offers will define the market value.
(3) The Dolphins will never have to completely meet market value because they are a known commodity to Tua.

From Tua's perspective, the Dolphins are a bidder. So please understand the value of known / trusted / preferred bidders versus unknown / outside bidders.

For instance, the Raiders might pay more but switching teams, coaches, etc. is all risky and uncertain. Staying in Miami will have inherent advantages for Tua which are low/no-risk "knowns." This is true in every situation.

Of course, these "knowns" are not always positive factors. A player may hate his team/HC and wish to go elsewhere. This creates a negative attraction leading to the player demanding more to stay with his present team.

Nonetheless, these deltas always exist. Assuming everyone has to pay the same is naive. Think of the most basic example. KC is a much more attractive destination for WRs compared with most other teams. That's true for many reasons. Thus, WRs will have to take less if they want a spot on the Chiefs roster.

We can be virtually certain that Tua has a positive relationship with the HC and offensive structure in Miami thus Miami can come in a bit under market value and still win given they are sure to be a preferred bidder.



Be careful. There are better words than "fair" to use here. We're talking about a negotiation between two parties with conflicting interests. The Dolphins do want to underpay. If Tua offered to play for $10M/yr the Dolphins would immediately sign that contract. Remember, the Dolphins are the buyer here. The lower the price, the better it is for them.

Actually, no, I'm not getting confused. You are coming at this from one side of the equation only and there are two sides involved. You can literally take all of your comments and turn them around in the opposite direction from Tua's camp perspective.

To put it simply
(1) What competing offers? Tua is under contract and there will be no competing offers.
(2) You deal with your star players fairly. Yes the Fins want him to be less expensive and Tua's agent wants to be more expensive. There is no mystery. That is where you negotiate and end up where both sides think it is fair
(3) The idea that the Fins don't have to meet market value because Tua is already a Fin is fools gold. Now you can negotiate what market value is based on stats, accomplishments or other measures, but because the sun shines a lot in South Florida is likely not going to be a good bargaining position

I do agree that Tua has a good relationship with the team and coach.....I'm not sure you are going to want to penalize him for that or depend on it unless it is the only difference.

I think I will throw caution to the wind and stick with my use of the word fair. In my experience, a good deal is fair to both sides

 

[Bob512]

nope.....i am thinking about guaranteed money. doesnt matter if a deal is announced at 5 and 275 if only $80mm is guaranteed. i would think about that as a 2 year, $80mm deal, $40mm per year. not that i expect this is the deal that gets done. but when a deal is announced, that is sort of the way to compare it to the other QB deals. it wont be hard to do, there will be enough detail that is released to compare what tua got to burrow, herbert and hurts, which are the best compares at this point.

when looking at comps when buying a house, you don't look at every home in the neighborhood. you look at similar homes. similar size, quality, land, etc. does the rest of the nfl view tua as joe burrow, or a different home? you seem to know somehow. i am not so certain. like i said, overconfidence is a human condition.

So, you agree that you can't use "offers" to evaluate a players worth and that comps make sense. I feel like you are making some progress......

 

[phinsforlife]

this is an interesting deal to watch. i wonder if the dolphins are waiting for detroit, or detroit is waiting for the dolphins? probably both. teams watch other teams. part of the reason why NFL ownership hated the fully guaranteed deshaun watson deal. the other interesting one to watch will be brock purdy, but that will come well after tua: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...contract-discussions-but-ill-leave-it-at-that

 

[rent this space]

 

[GatorFin73]

I would like to think Grier has a fair handle on what Tua is worth on the open market else that would make negotiating his contract a lot more difficult. Like I said earlier both sides have leverage and both sides will employ stats, other league contracts, results to date, injury histories and everything and anything else in those negotiations to hopefully at some point wind up with an accord.

I'm personally a Dolphin fan first and then Tua and any other player second. I want a team "friendly" deal. The reality is that doesn't mean it has to be $30 mil a year or some other type of way low figure relative to "market". It just means it needs to be team friendly from the Dolphin's point of view. A team friendly deal still likely means several years of security for Tua and $130 mil +/- guaranteed which has to be quite attractive to Tua and his camp despite "other QB's in his class" maybe having gotten more. The team has leverage and needs to use it, Tua is under contract and will play for us this year. I doubt he wants to risk $100 mil on whether he gets seriously injured this year or not, he would much rather the team take on that risk and guarantee him his money now. For this reason alone it needs to be a team friendly deal.

This is the art of negotiation and what is happening now. From the club's perspective the fact we likely (my words/thoughts) would be fine either signing him now before the season at a team friendly prescribed level, or if not, letting him play out the final year of his contract, is in fact our leverage. There are pro's/con's either way but we can at least look the Tua camp in the eye and say heh if you want to sign now and collect these guarantees this is where it needs to be otherwise we'll roll with the $23.1 mil we owe you this year, and then have a franchise tag option behind that and see how things go.

I doubt very much that we would just sign him to a league setting or top of market deal right now, that would be foolish. Can always do that next year if necessary if he crushes it which is what we all want anyway, then you would have had him for $23.1MM in '24 and relatively low cap hits in '25 and '26 versus scrapping the current contract now for low hits in '24 and '25 with a huge jump in '26.

I think a deal gets done late summer/early fall at a team friendly level, will be too hard for Tua to turn down. If that doesn't happen then letting him play out his current contract is not the end of the world and actually provides insurance against the currently unknown, injury/performance/both that would reduce his value. Frankly I'm fine either way, only thing I wouldn't be fine with is signing him to a league setting or near league setting level just because that's a little bit more than the last 4-5 guys got.

 

[andyahs]

 

[GatorFin73]

Got R Done at a team friendly contract. Pretty much what we have all applauded Grier for doing with almost every other contract this offseason (possible exception being the punter).

 

[phinsforlife]

I would like to think Grier has a fair handle on what Tua is worth on the open market else that would make negotiating his contract a lot more difficult. Like I said earlier both sides have leverage and both sides will employ stats, other league contracts, results to date, injury histories and everything and anything else in those negotiations to hopefully at some point wind up with an accord.

I'm personally a Dolphin fan first and then Tua and any other player second. I want a team "friendly" deal. The reality is that doesn't mean it has to be $30 mil a year or some other type of way low figure relative to "market". It just means it needs to be team friendly from the Dolphin's point of view. A team friendly deal still likely means several years of security for Tua and $130 mil +/- guaranteed which has to be quite attractive to Tua and his camp despite "other QB's in his class" maybe having gotten more. The team has leverage and needs to use it, Tua is under contract and will play for us this year. I doubt he wants to risk $100 mil on whether he gets seriously injured this year or not, he would much rather the team take on that risk and guarantee him his money now. For this reason alone it needs to be a team friendly deal.

This is the art of negotiation and what is happening now. From the club's perspective the fact we likely (my words/thoughts) would be fine either signing him now before the season at a team friendly prescribed level, or if not, letting him play out the final year of his contract, is in fact our leverage. There are pro's/con's either way but we can at least look the Tua camp in the eye and say heh if you want to sign now and collect these guarantees this is where it needs to be otherwise we'll roll with the $23.1 mil we owe you this year, and then have a franchise tag option behind that and see how things go.

I doubt very much that we would just sign him to a league setting or top of market deal right now, that would be foolish. Can always do that next year if necessary if he crushes it which is what we all want anyway, then you would have had him for $23.1MM in '24 and relatively low cap hits in '25 and '26 versus scrapping the current contract now for low hits in '24 and '25 with a huge jump in '26.

I think a deal gets done late summer/early fall at a team friendly level, will be too hard for Tua to turn down. If that doesn't happen then letting him play out his current contract is not the end of the world and actually provides insurance against the currently unknown, injury/performance/both that would reduce his value. Frankly I'm fine either way, only thing I wouldn't be fine with is signing him to a league setting or near league setting level just because that's a little bit more than the last 4-5 guys got.

Very well said!

 

[39wildman]

Dolphins will pay Tua next yr. Even if Tua don't win playoff game. The reason I said that. Ross draft Tua so they will make it work.

 

[Mello Yello]

Actually, no, I'm not getting confused. You are coming at this from one side of the equation only and there are two sides involved.

I think you are confused. You seem to get defensive about stuff that's basic business which leads to you being emotional about the topic and subsequently a bit rude.

For instance, your 2nd sentence doesn't even make sense. It's trying to be witty or something? C'mon, man.

So, you agree that you can't use "offers" to evaluate a players worth and that comps make sense. I feel like you are making some progress......

Again, you're just rude to people, Bob.

 

[phinsforlife]

So, you agree that you can't use "offers" to evaluate a players worth and that comps make sense. I feel like you are making some progress......

Once again I do not think you processed a word of what I said.

Side point, comps can also be very dangerous, and wise people know when not to use them. Housing in 2008, you could have purchased a home at a 5pct discount to comps, but still overpaid by 30pct at the end of the day. Same w tech stocks in the year 2000, except you could have overpaid by 90-100pct and lost everything.

Comps can badly detach from underlying intrinsic value for a lot of reasons. There have always been manias. It can happen in sports too.

Those who are wise know when the comps get stupid, and they step away. Or bet against them. The best of the best play it both ways, and take advantage of the mania, but then are smart enough to get out. Most don't.

Using stupidity to justify stupidity can work, but often it does not end well.

Smart GMs figured that out w regard to paying running backs, and then the less smart ones followed, but late and only after they damaged their team by overdrafting and overpaying the running back

Comps are just a tool in the toolkit. There is much more than comps when it comes to smartly determining the value of any asset, including athletes